Sources: Russia is massing a huge number of troops in Zaporizhzhia

Military expert: Disappointment with Avdjivka is felt in many Russian sources

General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine/Telegram/Soldiers of Ukraine

“Retreating from a long-defended city under enemy pressure has never been and will not be easy. The battle for Avdijivka was lost, the aggressor achieved his minor political and military goals, but it seems that the retreat from Avdijivka was successful,” says military expert Egidijus Papečkys in his daily war review.

According to him, the defending group of Ukrainian forces was not surrounded and crushed, the enemy did not advance far and the Russian columns did not move towards the Dnieper, threatening to cut the entire defense of the left bank of Ukraine in two.

“For the time being, it is not clear whether larger units remained surrounded in the city and how many Ukrainian soldiers were captured (the Russians speak of several hundred, it is too early to believe them). In many Russian sources, one can feel the disappointment, because it was announced that three thousand Ukrainians were surrounded, and this news did not come true,” he notes.

Photo by AFP/Scanpix and Liberal Movement/Egidijus Papeckys

The Russians talk regarding the fact that the Ukrainians fled with all their equipment, the argument is that they are retreating in small groups without heavy weapons. However, according to the expert, that technique was simply not there in Avdijivka, and what remained is either not usable at all, or will be resurrected following a long overhaul. The defense here took place with the infantry defending in the buildings and their basements, even the artillery fired not from the city itself, but from its surroundings. “What the Russians showed were a few company training logs and a couple of walkie-talkie chargers left behind. I’m being a bit ironic, but the Russians didn’t manage to take the many trophies,” says the military expert.

There was a hunger for shells

The Ukrainians from Avdijivka began withdrawing their units earlier, hoping that the Russians would turn all their attention to trying to cut off the city. Some of the troops were fresh rotate and didn’t even get to know the area well (which later cost many people their lives).

“Meanwhile, the aggressor noticed the weakened defense and, most importantly, the greatly reduced intensity of Ukrainian artillery fire. The hunger for shells was felt very clearly. Assessing all this, the Russian military leadership made a decision to storm the city itself, and it paid off. All these shortcomings of the Ukrainians and the advantages of the Russians came together and determined the outcome of the battle,” the analyst noted.

The different preparation of units and soldiers was very visible. The 3rd Assault Brigade is an example of a well trained, armed and motivated professional army. The units made up of the mobilized are obviously weaker. Most of them were captured.

“True, Russian sources are happy to share a record with one of the company commanders of the 3rd brigade who was captured. Unfortunately, this already happens in war. However, the majority of prisoners are from the mobilized”, says E. Papečkys.

One trend emerged from the released initial POW interviews, he said. “By the way, the recordings are worthy of attention and reliable, because the prisoners are interrogated immediately, “on the spot”, as soon as they were captured, no one gave them any preparation for what to say, and the Russians themselves are still overwhelmed by the emotions of the battle. Thus, most of the POWs interviewed tell the same story. He brought them, put them in position (usually two or more soldiers), gave them 4 magazines and 2 boxes of ammunition each (180 in total) and told them to defend themselves. It is not clear who is the neighbor from the left-right, there is no fire support, there is no connection. Not with anyone,” the analyst said.

According to him, they were hit by artillery, drones, aviation, and for a couple of days, the Russians fell from all sides. “He tried to shoot back, but the enemy approached and threw grenades at him, he had to surrender. And here you can feel that Ukrainian spirit – all the older, mobilized soldiers, it seems, had to run away or surrender. But they sat and shot until the situation became suicidally desperate. The soldiers who had recently been deployed did not even know where to retreat. This is also confirmed by the Russians, who have seen through drones how groups of Ukrainian soldiers are wandering around their own defense area, not knowing where to go.

There are also dead. No matter how shocking the shots taken by the Russians in occupied positions, this is the reality of war,” says E. Papečkys.

According to him, Russian losses are high, according to their own sources, only 45-50 percent of the units remain. soldiers and equipment, and in some brigades even less. This does not mean that they were all killed or wounded in the attack on Avdijivka these days, the units at the front are never full even before the attack, but that their losses are high, the Russians speak openly.

Ecuador will no longer transfer Soviet weapons

Russia is waging its own sanctions war. It was reported on Saturday that Ecuador, following the Russian “banana embargo” (sanctions on fruit imported into Russia from Ecuador), abandoned its intention to transfer its Soviet weaponry to the United States, from where the weapons would have later gone to Ukraine. Of course, the decision can still change, someone can buy bananas at a higher price than the Russians pay.

What awaits following Avdijivka

In the coming days, the Russians will still try to push the Ukrainians away from Avdiyivka, and in places they will manage to move forward a little. However, the fallen forces here need to recover and replenish, so their brakes are based on the first serious resistance.

Russian forces are already pressuring the Ukrainians in the districts of Kupiansk, Chasiv Yar, occupied Marjinka and Robotyn. Časiv Yar and Robotynė should become priority targets. As many as three divisions are concentrated at the latter, in the occupied region of Zaporizhia, and it may become a challenge for the Ukrainians to resist. And Chasiv Yar claims to become a new avdijivka or bachmut, but the Russians will need time for that.

“Recently, both sides attack each other’s rear very rarely and with small forces. I have no doubt that the Ukrainians have already chosen a new sensitive target in the occupied Crimea, which they are preparing to strike (it is necessary to somehow respond to the occupation of Avdijivka)”, observes E. Papečkys.