Emmanuel Macron, Marine Le Pen and Jean-Luc Mélenchon are, according to the latest polls, the three candidates most likely to end up in the second round of the French presidential election. But for Jean-Michel Apathie, the president of the National Rally is even likely to believe in the possibility of winning the Elysée.
It was on the 24H Pujadas program that the LCI morning columnist announced his analysis of the situation two weeks before the first round. “For people who analyze politics and who are intuitive animals, something is happening that hasn’t happened before. It’s not 2017,” he starts on the set of David Pujadas.
Citing examples from the cover of Release “She is there” or former Prime Minister Edouard Philippe who confided to the Parisian what “of course, Marine Le Pen can win the presidential election“, Jean-Michel Apathie explains that his feeling is shared by other observers. “It’s not to cry wolf or scare. There are many objective elements that draw this.”
The journalist first looks at the polls which give Emmanuel Macron against Marine Le Pen in the second round. “According to the voting intentions, the duel would give 54% of the vote to the president for 46% to the far-right candidate. Whereas a few months ago, it did not reach 35%. more and more people believe in the Le Pen brand.” Please note thata new poll gives an even smaller gap in the second round : 52.5% against 47.5%.
Regarding the voting intentions in favor of Marine Le Pen, the candidate had lost, according to the polls, votes to the detriment of Eric Zemmour in December. Only, according to the latest estimates, the candidate of the National Rally has regained the hair of the beast. “She gives the feeling that she ends the strongest this campaign”, says Jean-Michel Apathy. While for Emmanuel Macron, the polls announce a loss of support in the home stretch.
The editorialist then points to the advantage of the far-right candidate, her discrepancy with candidate Eric Zemmour. “I quote Marine Le Pen, who talks about Zemmour: ‘its emergence and certain retrograde aspects of its proposals made people realize that we were not that caricature’“, explains Jean-Michel Apathie. Before bringing his own analysis: Eric Zemmour presidentialized Marine Le Pen, because he is not.”
Mr. Apathy concludes with “Marine Le Pen’s asset”which is its potential vote among the voters of the other candidates: the 11% of Zemmour, the 2% of Lassalle, the 1.5% of Dupont-Aignan, a share of the 10% of Pécresse. “Emmanuel Macron has no positive contribution of votes, only defensive contributions”, of those who will vote for him to block his opponent. The editorialist also points to the “very strong” potential of abstainers among the 15.5% of Mélenchon and the 4% of Roussel.