Somchai Phakhaphaswiwat pointed out that the “Russia-Ukraine” war has not yet seen an end. Russia gets money from oil sales to fight Ukraine is supported by NATO. Stopping now equals a loss. Analyze the factors that make it possible Both sides are tired and lead to negotiations. Born but not soon
On July 4, 2022 Assoc. Prof. Dr. Somchai Phakhaphaswiwat Independent scholar in economics and politics Join the conversation in the program “Knock Knock News” broadcast on satellite television channel “News One” on the topic “5th month Ukrainian war. Can’t see the end?”
Assoc. Prof. Dr. Somchai said that Russia has adjusted its strategy. At first he overestimated the situation with too much conviction. The first stage target is the highest level. Ukranian dictatorship is wanted as soon as possible. and control the whole country and change a new government under his mandate But it turned out to be wrong. Ukraine has the ability to die to fight. plus getting weapons from NATO to help The first goal of Russia was not reached. Therefore, the target was changed to a smaller one. southern focus want to capture all the donbus It’s now more than 90 percent successful.
Putin also had talks that it was going through the process. In the south, most of the rebels have taken over the area. It’s in the process, but it’s not over. Let’s say if Putin is satisfied with the situation and leads the negotiations. Russia now occupies about 20 percent of Ukraine.
The Ukrainian president refused to end it because many people died. Many houses were damaged. And NATO is about to send high-powered weapons to help. Ending now is equal to what is broken and wasted.
Assoc. Prof. Dr. Somchai also said that how will it end? The first one assumes that Ukraine can fight Russia. Russia was unable to expand the occupied territory. because the cost is higher Then Ukraine tried to retake the southern part, but failed to seize it. At one point, both sides were exhausted. lead to negotiation This situation is possible but not now
Second, if Russia can continue to expand, Russia wins, the matter is over, but the cost is very high.
Third, the economy on the Russian side is better than the first. Because it can sell oil at the European-American sanctions to compensate for the money that the central bank seized. making it possible to breathe But inflation is high as in the West – America and it is expected that next year America will have a recession. The lowest GDP was negative for 2 quarters, 3-4 quarters heavier than that.
last factor People’s equation, who can tolerate more? Russia, people suffer less. because the news has only one side Russia can deceive its people. Then he brought the money from the sale of oil to help the people, giving out money, increasing the minimum salary. raise money for retirees make many people feel better while Europe – America Disadvantage because receiving news is not blocked causing some people to be dissatisfied