Mohamed Choucair
Beirut’s second constituency, which has electoral weight for the Sunni community, remains the subject of unprecedented interest in line with the ongoing consultations to fill the parliamentary vacancy that resulted from the reluctance of the leader of the “Future Movement”, former Prime Minister Saad Hariri, to run in the elections. These consultations aim to block the “resistance” axis led by “Hezbollah” and its allies, and prevent them from controlling most parliamentary seats, in harmony with the “Islamic Charitable Projects Association” (Al-Ahbash), which is preparing to run in the elections alone, but it is in political agreement with “Hezbollah.” , which puts them in the same trench with the Syrian regime.
Former Prime Minister Fouad Siniora is seeking to fill the void left by Hariri, as he is facing a difficult task, and is taking care of contacts to create political conditions that push for the formation of a list of candidates that meet the conditions to enter into a balanced confrontation with the lists of the “Shiite duo” and “Al-Ahbash”, In addition to a third list headed by Representative Fouad Makhzoumi, while the civil movement is almost absent from the electoral scene, unless it is preparing to fight the battle with a unified list, he takes the initiative to announce it as soon as the nomination window closes, at midnight on Tuesday, and before the deadline set on April 4th expires ( April) to register the electoral lists.
Although Siniora is not looking forward to forming a list of candidates to retrieve the kidnapped state, as he says, from Hezbollah, as far as sponsoring communications and coordinating between them, the reluctance of Representative in the Future bloc, Rola al-Tabash, has a political significance, because of what it carries Abaad is feared that it will lead to a decrease in the level of voting, although Hariri did not ask his partisans and the “Blue Movement” public to boycott the elections. On the other hand, he refrained from calling on them to vote massively.
The reluctance of al-Tabash, who is considered one of the closest to Hariri, can be explained by her indirect call to boycott the elections, and thus serves to circumvent Siniora’s role in patting the Sunni street, in order to mitigate the effects of the step he took by not vacating the arena for the “resistance” axis. Which is run by “Hezbollah” in its attempt and its allies to win the largest number of the 11 seats allocated to the second Beirut.
Also, Tabash’s mere reluctance will be interpreted as targeting the role played by Siniora, and it cannot be isolated from the “future”‘s dissatisfaction with his role, even if he avoided issuing any position in this regard, although some of those affiliated with him say in closed rooms that there is no dispute with Siniora in the face of Hezbollah’s project; But we do not want the “blue current” audience to turn into an electoral machine that provides free political services for those who equate Hariri with Hezbollah and President Michel Aoun and through him his political current, in direct reference to the worsening relationship of the “future” with the “Lebanese Forces” party. In light of the failure of attempts to heal the rift and return the relationship to its normal course; Especially since running for elections on unified lists in mixed constituencies means presenting him with a gift that will benefit him by increasing his electoral results.
Therefore, the political circles opposed to “Hezbollah” fear the low turnout in the Sunni street, which enhances the possibility of “Hezbollah” controlling the largest number of parliamentary seats by allying from under the table with “Al-Ahbash” and some of the symbols affiliated with the “Resistance Brigades.” And it warns once morest passing the parliamentary elections to those who attended, in the absence of the influence of the Sunni vote in the polls.
Accordingly, although the confrontation is confined in public between the list sponsored by Siniora and the competing lists, the other side lies in the silent dispute between Siniora and “Al-Mustaqbal,” contrary to everything that is said in public, except that Hariri made his decision to evacuate the electoral arena as a candidate to hold others responsible. The country took to collapse, specifically those who turned once morest it and obstructed the mission of the former “March 14” forces, by translating their victory in previous sessions by forming a government from the majority, with the minority taking over its opposition.
In this context, sources affiliated with “Al-Mustaqbal” say that Hariri’s decision to abstain from the fencing does not target Siniora, but rather the team that impeded the state-building project in the interest of the state, and through it to the external parties that tried to equate those who wanted to stop the collapse and those who obstructed the formation of the government , once morest the background of his adherence to the French initiative, which forced him to apologize for its formation.
On the other hand, other sources believe that they fear that the “resistance” axis will take control of Beirut, unlike other electoral districts in which Hezbollah does not have a surplus of power; Especially in the absence of “Al-Mustaqbal” from the electoral fencing; Because the lack of candidacy of his representative might affect the bulk of his audience, by not turning up at the ballot boxes.
Asharq Al-Awsat learned that Siniora has gone a long way towards finalizing the list of candidates that he personally sponsors with Prime Minister Najib Mikati, and with the escort of former Prime Minister Tammam Salam, who is aware of the consultations that Siniora is conducting without committing to any of the options. Politics, as he was the first in his reluctance to run in the elections.
It was reported that the nucleus of the list sponsored by Siniora is made up of the two former ministers: Judge Khaled Qabbani, university professor Hassan Mneimneh, university professor Lina Al-Tanir, and lawyer Majed Demashkieh. Mona Fayyad (for the Shiites), MP Faisal Al-Sayegh, the candidate of the Democratic Gathering for the Druze, the Orthodox Michel Falah, and the Evangelist George Haddad, without excluding an amendment to the candidates, including representatives of the major Beirut families that Siniora is communicating with, in the hope that he will be able, in cooperation with her, to: The mobilization of the Sunni street, to prevent the axis of “resistance” from controlling the largest number of seats.
As for the electoral districts in northern Lebanon, particularly those with Sunni influence, Asharq Al-Awsat learned from sources accompanying the consultations between Mikati and Siniora that they met yesterday before noon, in the presence of former Minister Ahmed Fatfat. These sources said that the research focused primarily on the formation of a unified list for the Tripoli-Dinniyah-Mineh constituency (11 seats), with Mikati having an active role in its formation, although he remained on his decision not to run in the elections.
According to preliminary information, Mikati and Siniora are proceeding in their sifting of the names of the candidates by excluding cooperation with candidates that might pose a challenge to Prime Minister Hariri, provided that he does not withdraw from the former Vice President of the “Future Movement” Mustafa Alloush, who submitted his resignation to Hariri, although his exclusion might lead to stumbling. The coalition, given that Alloush is currently communicating with the Islamic Group, has an intention to cooperate in Tripoli with female candidates and candidates from the new faces participating in the protests organized by the civil movement in the northern capital.
The question remains: Will an agreement be reached between Siniora and Mikati, who is still best able to shuffle the cards to form a coalition list, and is known for his skill in turning corners, unless there are considerations that he cannot ignore, compelling him to prepare a mixture of candidates intended to reconcile opposites, without disturbing the territory; Especially since he did not stop communicating with the inside and outside to cut the time at the lowest political costs, to ensure that the elections are held on time?
