The President of the National Coffee Council in Brazil, Silas Brasileiro, announced that “coffee stocks in Brazil may drop to 7 million bags next March,” while analysts say that the most moderate level is nine million to 12 million bags, each weighing 60 kilograms.
Stocks of Arabica coffee in port warehouses, which are monitored by the Intercontinental Exchange, have fallen to their lowest level in 23 years.
Stocks are “so low that if we get a good crop next year, Brazil will hardly be able to meet demand,” said Nelson Carvalhaes, a board member of Brazil’s exporters group Cecafe. “We only need rain.”
The pressure on global stocks led to an increase in the prices of Arabica coffee futures contracts in New York by 11% compared to the same period last year, while analysts expect prices to continue to rise even in the local Brazilian market.
The price of delivering a bag of coffee to the main consumer area in São Paulo has also increased by 19% compared to last year, according to data from the University of São Paulo.
