At European level, there will be no additional measures for the time being for Chinese tourists, who will be able to travel freely once more from January. Countries such as Italy do introduce corona tests for those who come from China. Should we fear a new corona wave?
What have the European member states decided?
No additional measures will be taken for the time being, the Health Security Committee (HSC) reported following a meeting on Thursday. The HSC is an advisory group made up of the Ministries of Health of the European Member States and part of the European Commission’s Directorate-General for Health and Food Safety. “Epidemiologically, the impact is virtually nil, because the omikron variant that is circulating in China has been present with us for some time,” reports the cabinet of Minister of Health Frank Vandenbroucke (Vooruit).
According to Vandenbroucke, the situation will be closely monitored both at European and national level in the coming weeks. For this reason, the Risk Assessment Group (RAG) will also meet next Monday. “If new variants appear to be circulating that are threatening, a joint approach is crucial,” says the minister.
What’s going on in China?
For three years, China had a strict zero-covid policy, with curfews, daily mass testing, strict quarantine rules and lockdowns with every corona outbreak. But since the government decided to loosen the reins, the number of infections in China has exploded. There are hardly any reliable figures, but images of morgues and hospital wards that are flooded are circulating on social media. It looks like the Bergamo of March 2020, but in a country with 1.4 billion inhabitants. According to an estimate by the Bloomberg news agency, at least 37 million people were infected in one day last week. A study that has not yet received peer review predicts that there might be a million corona deaths in China in the coming months.
“The outbreak in China reminds me of the omikron outbreak we had in Belgium a year ago,” says virologist Steven Van Gucht (Sciensano). “A lot of people became infected with us in a short period of time. The difference is that we had a better vaccination coverage, and better vaccines.” According to the Chinese Ministry of Health, more than 90 percent of the population has been vaccinated. But among the over-80s, the most vulnerable group, only two-thirds needed an injection. In addition, due to the strict corona policy, relatively few residents have built up natural immunity through contamination. “This means that the consequences of this wave can be a lot more serious for China than with the omi corona wave in our country,” says Van Gucht.
What are the possible consequences for us?
China will reopen its borders next month following three years of isolation. Foreigners are allowed to re-enter the country without quarantine obligations and Chinese people can also get exit visas to go abroad once more.
A good thing for business travelers and the tourism sector, but the relaxation is also causing unrest in many countries. Are we not threatening to import a truckload of new infections? That chance is real, shows a random sample at Milan airport, where all travelers from China were tested on Monday. On a flight from Beijing, 35 of the 92 passengers were found to be infected. On a second flight from Shanghai, more than half were infected: 62 of the 120 passengers.
The comparison with the start of the corona pandemic is quickly made, although according to Van Gucht it does not hold water. “Then a new virus came over from Asia to Europe. Now this virus variant is already everywhere here, and it is now also conquering China.”
The fact that virologists in our country are currently mainly preaching calmness is because there is not immediately a new, unknown variant in China that causes this wave. It now seems to mainly concern infections with the omikron variant BF.7, and this is already on its way back to us. “Since it no longer benefits us, the impact is limited,” says biostatistician Tom Wenseleers (KU Leuven). “There are other virus strains, such as BQ.1 and BQ.1.1, that pose a greater threat to us than now comes from China.”
Is the European (and Belgian) approach the right one?
In our country, as in our neighboring countries, there will not be any corona tests for Chinese tourists right away. However, Van Gucht would have liked to see that happen. “As a scientist, I think it is advisable to keep a finger on the pulse. Only when we test on a regular basis will we get an accurate picture of which variants are now coming from China. But that must be done at European level, invoking individual rules makes little sense.”
The latter is now happening. Italy decided on Wednesday to have all travelers from China undergo corona tests, just like the United States and Japan, other EU countries are not doing so for the time being. According to political scientist Hendrik Vos (UGent), this discord is a result of the choice to keep health care as a national competence, so that each country can decide on its own. “Each country has different economic or political considerations. In the case of Italy, for example, it may be that the country was hit so hard in the first corona wave. The result is that you come to such absurd situations, where one EU country will test and the other will not.”
