The maintenance of Selic, the basic interest rate of the economy at 13.75%, by the Monetary Policy Council (Copom) of the Central Bank, with signs that the percentage may even increase, was a bucket of cold water for the productive sectors . After all, in addition to reducing the pace of the economy, such a high rate makes it difficult to grant credit, which has already been restricted since the beginning of the year with the collapse of Lojas Americanas.
The machinery and equipment segment, for example, which depends on credit granted to industries to sell, had the worst January in three years. Industry leaders say that the scarcity of resources and very expensive credit have led to the suspension of projects. Business demand for credit in February fell 10.17% compared to the same month of 2022, according to the Business Demand Indicator for Credit, released by Serasa.
“High interest rates like the current ones bring economic activity down and discourage businessmen from seeking credit”, points out businessman José Maurício Caldeira, from Asperbras Brasil. For him, in this adverse context, the situation is even more difficult for micro, small and medium-sized companies that have been relying on the two lines of credit created during the pandemic (Pronampe for micro and small and Peac for medium) to circumvent the difficulties.
A point of attention, emphasizes Caldeira, is that the projections are that the resources available for Pronampe and Peac will run out in the first semester. Therefore, it is urgent that the funding of these two lines be renewed. Effective until 2024, Pronampe has R$ 14 billion available for this year, of which around 30% has already been disbursed. The PEAC, which expires at the end of 2023, has a total estimate of BRL 22 billion available in the 2022/2023 editions and a daily average of BRL 137 million – 28% for industry. Although interest rates are high, these lines are still cheaper than free credit.
Faced with this worrying scenario, the government is designing a package to unlock credit. Some proposals require changes in the law and have to be approved by the National Congress, which will require negotiation. Others depend only on acts of the Executive. Some measures that should be announced soon are: facilitating the sharing of customer data with banks, so that they know the real financial situation of those who are applying for credit; the end of the interest ceiling, currently limited to the Selic, for loans between individuals, since the understanding is that this ceiling discourages the development of the capital market; the facilitation of debt enforcement in the case of debtors charged in court and the expansion of the activities of insurance cooperatives to increase competition.
Even so, the productive sectors hope that a Selic reduction will not be too late. “It defines the entire structure of interest rates in the economy, which is why it is essential that it falls”, says José Maurício Caldeira.
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