Sergei Shoigu from 2022 following not taking Kiev
Author. mil.ru
Fortunately for Ukraine, the appointment of Andrei Belousov as the Minister of Defense is yet another proof that Minoborona is, in principle, to be led by a politician and, at the same time, a military ignoramus. The same was the case with Sergei Shoigu and his predecessor: Anatoly Serdyukov.
Although on the official website of the Russian Ministry of Defense Sergei Shoigu was still listed as a minister at midnight on May 12, 2024, it is almost certain that he will be moved to the position of Chairman of the Security Council and Andrei Belousov will be appointed in his place. The only unknown in this personnel puzzle is the fate of Nikolai Patrushev, who, replaced by Shoigu, is currently in political oblivion.
The comments that immediately appeared in the media officially indicate the Kremlin’s will to civilize the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation in order to give the appearance of civilian control over the army and better management of the huge budget allocated to the military. In fact, this “civilization” has already been implemented before. Just as Andrei Belousov is a military ignorant today, Sergei Shoigu was a military ignorant in 2012, when he became the head of the Ministry of Defense.
It must be remembered that the recently dismissed head of Minoborona never actually served in the army, being a typical Soviet and Russian apparatchik. His only military education was training at the “war cathedral” of the Krasnoyarsk Polytechnic Institute, where Shoigu studied civil engineering until 1977. As a typical student, he did not actually serve in the army, but following passing the “cathedral” he received the rank of “junior lieutenant”.
Shoigu also did not receive military training later in his career. First, he worked in industry, and in 1988 he became an active party activist (like his father, Kuzugiet Shoigu). He was promoted very quickly, gaining further education through the party (a doctorate in economics), as well as the rank of general (from Boris Yeltsin) for his faithful attitude during the coup in Moscow in 1993.
Shoigu even received the title of Hero of the Russian Federation from Yeltsin on September 20, 1999 “for the courage and heroism shown while performing military service in extreme situations.” Interestingly, he was then the Minister of Civil Defense, Emergency Situations and Disaster Relief of the Russian Federation with the rank of colonel general.
Sergei Shoigu in 2015 following the occupation of Crimea
Author. Photo mil.ru
For his faithful attitude, Shoigu was finally appointed by the decision of Vladimir Putin on November 6, 2012, to the position of Minister of Defense. He replaced Anatoly Serdyukov, who was also not a military man, but an economist (graduated from the Institute of Soviet Trade in Leningrad in 1984) and a lawyer (graduated from the Faculty of Law at the University of St. Petersburg). Now (in 2024) there has been a kind of “return to the past” and the construction engineer will be replaced by an economist once more. Shoigu’s successor, Andrei Belousov, graduated in economics from the University of Moscow.
There are even more such differences between the former and the new head of Minoborona. Compared to Shoigu, Belolusov, for example, does not have a military rank. However, as it turns out, only formally. As a high-level government official, Belolusov holds the rank of State Advisor of the Russian Federation, 1st degree. Meanwhile, according to the table approved by the Decree of the President of the Russian Federation in 2005, this rank corresponds to the military rank of general of the army or admiral of the fleet. Therefore, in the Russian reality, nothing will prevent General Belolusov from leading another military parade on Red Square in Moscow.
A certain problem, taking into account the mentality of the Russians, may be the huge difference in the number of decorations. Shoigu had 55 of them on his uniform, while Belolusov has only four, including one as minor as the “In Memory of the 850th Anniversary of Moscow” medal. But also in this case, the new defense minister will be able to count on the help of his principal, Vladimir Putin. This is all the more likely because Belolusova is one of Putin’s supporters and friends, which certainly might not be said regarding Shoigu recently.
The former defense minister has even become a kind of burden for the Russian president, not only preventing him from receiving further field gains in Ukraine, but also theoretically threatening him as a possible successor. Meanwhile, Belolusov, even as president of the Russian Federation, would be a guarantee for Putin of staying in power, even if it were to be in the second row.
Shoigu is burdened not only by his unfulfilled promises regarding the war in Ukraine and his political ambitions, but also by his supporters at the highest levels. Putin has already started to deal with them by arresting Deputy Defense Minister Timur Ivanov at the end of April 2024 – theoretically for corruption. However, this type of offense is the norm at the highest levels of Russian power, so the indictment will probably be changed to high treason. And a few other friends of Shoygu may face similar charges.
Fortunately, all this confusion in the Russian Ministry of Defense will certainly not harm Ukraine. Shoigu was indeed a military ignoramus when he started working in Minoboron, but following eleven years of work as a minister he is certainly not so anymore. And this is not regarding military knowledge, because he certainly did not acquire it, but regarding the knowledge of the situation in the army, as well as the ability to distinguish general lies from the real situation in the Russian armed forces. Meanwhile, Belolusov will initially have to rely on the advice and opinions of generals, which will certainly not have a positive impact on the situation on the front for the Kremlin.
The fate of the former Chairman of the Security Council, Nikolai Patrushev, remains unknown. Theoretically, this was Putin’s man, who was subject to Western sanctions for his involvement in the war in Ukraine. Like Putin, he also had a career in the KGB, and later in the FSB for some time he would even be the director of the Federal Security Service. Now, however, by decree of the President of Russia of May 12, 2024, he has been removed from his position, officially: “due to moving to another job.”
In the Russian Federation, however, such a statement does not necessarily bode well.
