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As of June 9, the Russian-Ukrainian war lasted for 106 days, and the impact on China and its pros and cons became clearer.
Political neutrality: China’s position and reactions
China prudently maintains neutrality. On the one hand, it maintains Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, and does not agree with (substantially euphemistically opposes) Russia’s use of war to resolve differences; Legitimate security interests need to be respected by the United States and NATO.
This position is in the best interests of China. We must not support Russia’s apparent violation of the “United Nations Charter”, otherwise it will be isolated internationally, and it will leave serious troubles for the future settlement of the Taiwan issue; nor can it be reckless once morest Russia, and will not receive any rewards and rewards from the United States. China has different values. After cleaning up Russia, it will only focus on China more calmly.
It is not easy to “walk the tightrope” in such a balance, but fortunately, it is understood by both sides of the war. The Russian Foreign Ministry thanked China for its “balanced position”, Zelenskidze was satisfied that “China has chosen a policy of distancing and non-involvement”, and the EU and Ukraine even hope that China will act as a mediator.
Of course, the United States and NATO expressed dissatisfaction with China’s neutrality and continued to exert pressure. On March 5, U.S. Secretary of State Blinken claimed in a phone call with Wang Yi, “The whole world is watching which countries stand up and defend the basic principles of freedom, self-determination and sovereignty.” On April 14, Blinken said in his speech, On the right side or the wrong side, on the side of the basic principles of the international system, or on the side of chaos and conflict, “China must ultimately make a choice.”
On April 5, NATO Secretary-General Stoltenberg accused China of “unwillingness to condemn Russia’s ‘aggression'”, joining Russia in “questioning the right of nations around the world to choose their own path.” On April 13, U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen stated, “If China does not respect sovereignty and territorial integrity at this critical moment, it cannot expect the international community to respect any of its claims for sovereignty and territorial integrity in the future.”
It is in the interests of the United States to deeply bind and stigmatize China and Russia, and jointly list them as destroyers of the international order. But China’s position is not isolated. Dozens of developing countries, including India, Vietnam, the United Arab Emirates, and ASEAN and Africa, neither agree with nor condemn Russia.
Military stability: do not take the initiative to break the status quo on both sides of the strait
After the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian war, Western political circles, think tanks and media have a concern, will China take advantage of the distraction of the United States to force Taiwan?
The Biden administration has followed the Trump administration’s policy toward Taiwan, constantly playing “edge balls”, creating “one China, one Taiwan”, and improving Taiwan’s defense capabilities and the official relationship between the United States and Taiwan. And going further, it began to mobilize the alliance system and power to play the “Taiwan card” in a high-profile manner, with Japan following the most closely.
At a Senate hearing on March 10, U.S. Assistant Secretary of Defense Carlin believed that the stubbornly resisting Ukraine was a “model” for Taiwan to defend once morest a mainland offensive; Assistant Secretary of State Lewis urged that Taiwanese “must be ready to fight.”
On May 24, following the Quartet Security Dialogue Summit, the host country, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, on behalf of the leaders of the United States, Japan, Australia, and India, announced a consensus: “Anywhere, especially in the Indo-Pacific region, there will never be any tolerance for unilateralism that uses force to change the status quo. Side attempts.” Yu Kishida’s early remarks confirmed that the intention of the Taiwan Strait was obvious.
In the event of a military conflict between China and the United States, the biggest risk is indeed the Taiwan Strait. Fortunately, both countries are very rational at present, and as always, do not want to go to war. Under the joint constraints of China and the United States, Taiwan will not and will not dare to unilaterally change the status quo (such as legal “Taiwan independence”, illegal possession of nuclear weapons, etc.), then the mainland has no motivation to actively change the status quo, and there is no opportunity to passively change the status quo, so there is no war in the Taiwan Strait. .
Chinese don’t hit Chinese. Once you want to take military control of Taiwan, you must learn from a famous teacher. This “name” solves both the legitimacy and the sequelae both internally and externally. Don’t underestimate the shrewdness of American elites, and they will not easily fulfill China’s “famous” military command. Of course, China has implemented many low-intensity military countermeasures, including but not limited to: military planes and warships circumnavigating Taiwan, targeted military exercises, and joint strategic patrols with Russia around Japan.
The US strategy is correct, but the tactical operation is wrong. The more and more high-profile the “Taiwan card” is played, the more likely it will arouse disgust and resistance from the Chinese people, the momentum of domestic nationalism will be stronger, the more and firmer stances of “pro-Russian and anti-American” will be held, and the unity with the ruling party will be closer. .
Both Chinese and American defense ministers attended the 19th Shangri-La Dialogue from June 10 to 12. According to the U.S. side, China offered to hold talks between the defense ministers of the two countries. One of the main topics was the Taiwan issue, and the U.S. side accepted the proposal. Obviously, both militaries and countries need to manage risks and reduce misjudgments. Previously, the U.S. refused to hold talks between the defense ministers of the two countries, believing that the equivalent of the U.S. defense secretary should be Xu Qiliang, a member of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and vice-chairman of the Central Military Commission.
It doesn’t matter what China and the United States talk regarding, whether they reach a consensus or not, and it doesn’t matter whether there are small or big quarrels. Representatives of both sides should explain to their own public opinion and the head of state, each for their own interests and their own interests. The most important thing is that the Chinese and American militaries have solid platforms and mechanisms to maintain strategic communication. When Trump started a trade war in 2018, the author has always believed that the military has replaced trade as the ballast stone of Sino-US relations.
Sino-US relations will not improve. In the next 20 years, China will inevitably endure huge pressure from the United States. This is a necessary test and a necessary price. There is no fuss. If China can’t bear it, it will consider itself unlucky; if it can bear it, it will be bright.
If you can’t bear it, it means you don’t have the strength to sit on the second or the top of the world, and you won’t get much sympathy or support; if you can bear it, and the development momentum is still strong, that’s the real skill. When the GDP exceeds 20% of the United States, it becomes possible to tailor new international rules and orders.
Sanctions Challenge: Unexpected Terrible After Bearing It Up
The United States led the West to impose severe financial, technological, energy, trade, diplomatic and other sanctions on Russia. After more than three months of observation, Russia has indeed suffered heavy losses and is indeed notorious in the international community.
Taking financial sanctions as an example, Russia was kicked out of SWIFT, a large number of US dollar and euro reserves were frozen by the West, and the wealth of the rich was confiscated. After the annexation of Crimea, Russia has been planning for many years. It has greatly reduced its dollar reserves and increased its gold reserves. It has been subjected to the most ruthless financial sanctions imposed by the West, and the market is still in short-term panic.
The exchange rate hit its lowest point on March 7, at $0.0064 per ruble, down 50 percent from before the war. Since then, it has continued to rise. On June 8, the exchange rate was 1 ruble to $0.0167, a 150% surge from the lowest point. The main reason is that the war and the epidemic have exacerbated the energy crisis and food crisis, pushing up energy and food prices and inflation, and the ruble exchange rate has become stronger.
The U.S.’s extreme sanctions once morest Russia, if war breaks out in the Taiwan Strait in the future, may be imposed on China, which is equivalent to giving China valuable research and exercise opportunities in advance. In the Sino-US trade war, Huawei and ZTE have conducted extreme stress tests. This time, the entire country will conduct extreme stress tests.
China’s national conditions are different from Russia’s. It is a big energy importer, but it has a significantly stronger ability to withstand pressure. It is the country with the most complete industrial categories in the world, and it can self-sufficient staple food. In the trade war with China, the Trump administration used the third-rate weapon of high tariffs, which actually hurt both sides. Now that U.S. inflation remains high, Biden has clearly asked the U.S. Treasury Department to study the removal of high tariffs on China.
After more than 40 years of reform and opening up, China has become the biggest beneficiary of globalization and has become the second largest economy in the world. China contributes regarding a quarter of the global economic growth every year. Successfully deeply bound with the economic interests of the West, you have me and I have you.
China’s foreign exchange reserves exceed 3 trillion US dollars, and European and American investment assets in China are far more than 3 trillion US dollars. The following ruthless moves by the West to freeze China’s foreign exchange reserves also have to consider the huge losses of their own capital and assets in China following China’s reciprocal retaliation.
Russia uses NSPK (National Bank Card Payment System) to replace SWIFT, and China also has CIPS (CNY Cross-border Payment System) which is more widely used. In 2021, there will be more than 1,200 participants, with a cumulative transaction value of RMB 79.6 trillion. Although the scale is regarding 8.6% of that of SWIFT, the growth rate in 2021 will be astonishing, up 51.6% year-on-year, while SWIFT will only grow by 11.2%.
With the continuous enhancement of China’s economic strength and the implementation of the “Belt and Road” project and RCEP, the pace of RMB internationalization will inevitably accelerate, and the digital renminbi will inevitably become popular. . For example, China, the world’s largest oil importer, is negotiating with Saudi Arabia to abandon the US dollar and switch to renminbi settlement for oil transactions.
The Russian-Ukrainian war was a brutal urban street battle and a war of attrition. The two sides suffered the most, and then dragged down Europe. Military aid and refugees were a bottomless pit. The three major countries that benefit the most are the United States, China and India.
Taking energy sanctions as an example, the rigid demand for oil and natural gas in Europe remains unchanged, especially heating in winter is the basic livelihood of the people. Imports from Russia have dropped sharply, and they have to spend huge sums of money to import from the United States and the Middle East. Germany is expected to spend at least 5 billion euros more this year. . India and China took the opportunity to import a large amount of cheaper oil from Russia, and sold it following finishing, making a fortune in silence.
Taking the evasion of secondary sanctions in the US and Europe as an example, both China and the West have a self-evident tacit understanding. Chinese officials must object, this is “politically correct”, but at the practical level, Chinese companies, especially high-tech companies and state-owned banks, attach great importance to compliance review, and do not deliberately touch the red lines of the West. big Chinese companies.
Taking the chips subject to technical sanctions as an example, 70% of Russia’s chips are imported from China, and China’s low-end chips have been mass-produced and have independent intellectual property rights. Although there is regarding a five-year gap with the world’s top technology, fortunately, it is cheap, practical and reliable, and it can occupy the Russian market in large quantities for a long time.
(Note: The author is an independent reviewer, WeChat public account: SSWYPL. This article only represents the author’s personal views. The editor-in-charge email bo.liu@ftchinese.com)
