After Hamas’ attack on Israel in October, Hassan Nasrallah, Hezbollah’s leader, delivered a fiery speech in which he described Israel as “weak and weaker than a spider’s web,” and considered the current war “decisive in history.”
However, events developed dramatically, according to the Wall Street Journal, as months later, Nasrallah was killed along with most of the leaders of his party, which was subjected to devastating blows that revealed a deep Israeli intelligence penetration into its ranks.
The American newspaper considered that, in retrospect, it became clear that Nasrallah made two strategic mistakes: the first was gross underestimation of Israel, his enemy, and the second was overestimation of the power of Iran and its allies in the region.
The newspaper explained that Iran has shown that its concept of “unity of fronts” is a one-way street, as it expects its allies in the region to shed their blood for its regime, but without any compensation from them.
She pointed out that the strong strikes received by Hezbollah constitute a “major strategic challenge to Iran,” explaining that Tehran was relying on the party’s missile arsenal as a deterrent card against any possible Israeli attack on its nuclear facilities.
In this context, Michael Horowitz, an intelligence expert at the international consulting firm Lee Beck, says: “Weakening Hezbollah creates a radical shift in the region. The party is not just an ordinary Iranian proxy, but rather an essential element in Iran’s defense strategy and its main tool for deterring Israel.” .
Horowitz adds: “This situation puts Iran in a real dilemma. While Hezbollah was originally created to protect Iran, Tehran now finds itself facing the dilemma of defending the party itself.”
“A turning point awaits”
While the newspaper reported that Hezbollah was “a victim of its arrogance,” it points out that Israel now risks falling into a similar trap, especially if it launches a ground invasion of Lebanon and attempts to redraw the Lebanese political structure, noting that its invasion of Lebanon in 1982 led to the birth of Hezbollah and its occupation. Long ended with withdrawal.
Despite the death of Nasrallah and several senior leaders, the newspaper says that Hezbollah still maintains thousands of experienced fighters and a large arsenal that can be used to inflict heavy losses on prepared ground in its strongholds in southern Lebanon.
Ksenia Svetlova, a former member of the Israeli Knesset and non-resident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council, warned: “Hezbollah cannot wait for Israel to begin operating on the ground in southern Lebanon because that moment could become a turning point that allows them to rise from the ashes and regain support.” Once again from the broader Lebanese community.”
While Israeli leaders are aware of the dangers of ground fighting, and remember the losses of the 2006 campaign, the main problem remains the difficulty of achieving the government’s declared goal of returning about 60,000 displaced Israelis to their homes, with air force alone.
The assassination of Nasrallah… between the movements of Hezbollah and Iran and Israel’s plans
The British Broadcasting Corporation “BBC” reported that Israel’s assassination of Hezbollah Secretary-General, Hassan Nasrallah, represents a dangerous escalation that will likely push the region an additional step towards a more comprehensive and destructive conflict.
Despite the recent strikes, Hezbollah rejects a cross-border ceasefire without Israel also agreeing to a ceasefire with Hamas in Gaza.
The Wall Street Journal indicates that the party’s biggest loss is its loss of “the aura of invincibility that allowed it to control the Lebanese state.”
Hezbollah is also now risking its standing with its base within the Lebanese Shiite community, especially as residents of Shiite-majority areas in the south and the Bekaa Valley flee their homes due to Israeli air strikes.
In this aspect, political analyst Michael Young says: “Hezbollah’s war has backfired on it. It has destroyed large parts of the south, and hundreds of thousands of Shiites are on the roads or basically refugees in their country. How can Hezbollah guarantee the loyalty of these people anymore?” .
He continued, “The other problem is that locally, Hezbollah remains isolated when it comes to opening a second front with Israel,” explaining that “there is now a certain amount of gloating over what is happening with it, among several parties in the region.”
