This week at the Chukyo Racecourse 56th ・Shinzan Kinen(GIII, turf 1600m) will be held.A good-blooded horse who won the new horse race (Tokyo Shiba 1600m), which was the debut race of the previous race, with a difference of 3 horses and a half.Rasul, Tokyo Sports Hai Nisai S, aiming for a comeback from 5th placeRed bell arm, Winning the Koyamaki Award and currently winning two consecutive gamesSolitarioEtc. are scheduled to run.
Here, we will read the development from the good running conditions of Shinzan Kinen and the assumed members, and will be a hint of the betting ticket.Dangerous popular horseAs a piece from Kitasan BlackRasulI want to take up.
■ Kitasan Black’s large piece Rasul
First of all, the previous run of RasulNew horse raceTo analyze.
Rasul gained popularity with a win of 2.1 times. The gate started at the timing when the weight was applied to the hind legs, so it was a start that was a little less than two horses away from the other horses, but immediately attached to the front team with two legs and proceeded with the horse race in 4th place in the inn. Although there was some strength, he ran away in a straight line and exchanged horses smoothly, and with the fastest climb of 34 seconds 0, he won by 3 horses.
In addition to the pedigree background of Kitasan Black production piece, which has been bustling with 45 wins at the end of last year and the top in the first season sire ranking, from the win of the new horse race, “maintaining the horsepower of the generation top class, sharp regardless of distance It can be evaluated as “a horse that can pull out its last leg.” In addition, it is natural that expectations for the golden combination of Kazuo Fujisawa trainer and Lemaire jockey, who will be the last year, will increase.
However, this time, in addition to the direct Rote from the new horse race that won overwhelmingly without stress, Rasul who has various problems such as the problem of gate difficulty that can be fatal in the first prize challenge remains a little uneasy.
■ Kukuna’s counterclockwise trap
Next, I would like to introduce the results of Rote from the new horse race.
In the past 10 years, the horses that have challenged with Rote from the new horse race have a run record of[1-2-0-7]marking a win rate of 10.0%, a consecutive win rate of 30.0%, and a double win rate of 30.0%. is doing. Val d’Isere (4 popular 1st place) in 2019, Tsuzumimon (7 popular 2nd place) in 2018, and Jeweler (2 popular 2nd place) in 2016, a total of 3 horses ran well in the betting ticket. Furthermore, when analyzing the characteristics of the three horses that ran well in the betting ticket, they all had the common feature of “clockwise in the previous run”.
In addition, although it has been enforced at Chukyo Racecourse since last year, Kukuna, who had gained the most popular support during the battle process from the “clockwise front run”, was the first to third place last year in the previous run Tokyo. It was a battle from Artemis S at the racecourse, but it could not meet the popularity and lost to 4th place. In the past 10 years, the previous run clockwise is[8-10-9-89]consecutive rate 15.5%, double win rate 23.3%, while the previous run counterclockwise is[3-1-2-32]consecutive rate There is also an unexpected tendency of 10.5% and double win rate of 15.8%. As is common with Kukuna, the main reason for this is that there is a tendency of high west and low east at Shinzan Kinen.
In other words, in addition to being more popular than your ability because you won with an impact at the Tokyo Racecourse, it is easy for you to have difficulty in positioning because you have less “gate experience” than other horses. Rasul, who cannot secure a position, does not fall under the good running conditions at Shinzan Kinen.
■ “Advance ability” inherited from my father
Next, we will analyze the results of each of the 3rd floors of the high-ranking prizes held at the 1600m Chukyo Shiba, which is the stage for this event.
・3F 1st place[4-0-2-5]36.4% winning rate 36.4% consecutive winning rate 54.5%
・3F 2nd place[0-1-2-7]The winning rate is 0.0%, the consecutive rate is 20.0%, and the recovery rate is 30.0%
・3F 3rd place[0-4-1-2]The winning rate is 0.0% The consecutive rate is 57.1% The recovery rate is 71.4%
・3F ～5th place[1-2-2-16]Winning rate 4.8%, consecutive match rate 14.3%, recovery rate 23.8%
・3F 6th place[4-1-3-85]Winning rate 4.3%, consecutive match rate 5.4%, recovery rate 8.6%
In this way, in the Chukyo Mile, the “fastest horse to climb” has won the most 4 wins in Thailand, and at the Chukyo Kinen, Greater London in 2018, Sadamu Patek in 2014, Fragarach in 2013 and 2012, the fastest end. I’m winning with my legs out. In addition, the horse that was in 3rd place went up with a good double win rate of 71.4%, and last year’s Shinzan Kinen also went up, and Rooks Nest in 3rd place made a good run despite the 8th popular low rating.
In addition, when analyzing the good running performance (turf) of horses that have won in Kitasan Black, the horses that were ahead in 5th place in the 4th corner accounted for about 80% of the number of wins. Since his father Kitasan Black became an old horse, his leg quality became stable, and he became a famous horse with the tactic of “escape / preceding”, but it seems that his “horse racing sense” is inherited by the production piece. However, although Rasul had a sign in the previous run, he put his weight on his hind legs just before the start, so the gate was not so good. In other words, in order to take the tactic of “leading within 5th place”, which is also a good run pattern of Rasul,
・ Get out of the gate quickly
・ Make a compromise along the way even with a large number of animals
・ Split a group of horses in a straight line without stress
・ Corresponding to the fast forward leaning lap peculiar to the 3-year-old grade race
Since we have to overcome the above-mentioned “four issues”, it may be necessary to downplay it more than expected.
Considering the delicacy of betting tickets from the above uncertainties, Rasul is evaluated as “erased”. In “Part 2”, I will introduce the favorite to replace Rasul and the conclusion including 4 Anomas.
Shinzan Kinen 2022 Expected Column List
▼ Overtake diagnosis
◆[S evaluation]”S” evaluation that surpasses Rasul “The sign is perfect” due to the overwhelming movement
◆[A rating]”A” rating for popular horses that challenge with a unique adjustment method.
◆[A rating]Highly rated “A” for the popular hole horses.
▼ Data forecast
◆[Data capture-Part 1]With strong data of “75% betting ticket rate” boosted, pay attention to whether to continue with 2 mares
▼ Other data trends
◆[Frame order]Red bell arm enters the demon gate of “light and dark” “0 consecutive pairs” in the top popular horses
Sentence, Kouki Nishitate (SPREAD editorial department)