Raise the retirement age. Several candidates for the presidential election suggest it or are considering it. Thus, Valérie Pecresse, candidate for the Republicans, displays, for example, her desire to bring departures “gradually up to 65 years”. Emmanuel Macron, who is not yet a candidate, has repeatedly felt that a measure of this type would be necessary and hinted that he might implement it during a second term. The Head of State would then favor a cursor at 64 years old. On the left, the question does not arise, most candidates planning a return to 60 years.
Shifting the age is what pays the most to the pension system
The objective is obviously to bring money into the coffers of the pension plan, which is in deficit and whose expenditure today weighs nearly 15% of our GDP. If employees retire later, they then contribute longer and use their pensions for less time. For example, according to previous studies by the COR, a two-year shift saved more than 14 billion euros in 2020. This is in any case, the calculation made following the transition from 60 to 62 years in 2010 .
But behind the need to balance the pension system, the situation is far from being so simple, assure the unions. Because there are side effects, often forgotten, which however, can weigh heavily on the accounts.
Thus, the CFDT, the majority in the private sector, has some doubts. Supported by the other centrals, it therefore asked the Pensions Council, the COR, to take up the subject. The meeting is being held this Thursday, January 27, and it is a safe bet that these conclusions will be carefully scrutinized by the applicants at the Elysée.
Effects on unemployment
One of the first consequences of raising the retirement age concerns employment. Certainly, according to Dares, which depends on the Ministry of Labor, the employment rate of seniors is progressing, around 14%. A significant number. Companies retain older employees, and the latter then postpone the moment of leaving.
But, the other side of the coin, there are also many cases where seniors do not remain in employment and therefore find themselves registered with Pôle emploi… for longer, until they assert their pension rights. According to Darès estimates, lowering the age might thus lead to 84,000 additional registrations, ie an expenditure of 1.3 billion euros per year for Unedic.
And on the other social assistance systems
The risk is therefore to increase expenditure on unemployment insurance but also on social minima. For example, once their unemployment rights have been exhausted, to link up with the payment of retirement pensions, these job seekers will benefit from the specific solidarity allowance, or the RSA, etc… bet that they will also be more often on disability, “disability affects almost one in 10 people just before retirement”, specifies the Dress…
Estimated cost of all these additional expenses: nearly 5 billion euros per year. Which is far from negligible, even if the advantage of a lag remains positive.
Differing studies
If the calculators are working at full speed, several studies clash. Thus, the OFCE’s work on this subject is even more clear-cut: for them, the advantages and disadvantages cancel each other out following 5 years, and even turn out to be negative following 10 years. In fact, the debates of experts promise to multiply, and it is difficult to have a consensus around this subject. One thing is certain, however, such a reform would require good coordination between the different regimes. And therein lies the advantage of this COR work: pointing the finger at the hidden externalities of such a reform.
In the meantime, everyone is emphasizing the need to improve the employment rate for seniors in France, which remains among the lowest in the euro zone.