Hong Kong has less land and more people, so the Hong Kong government has been facing land and housing problems since the handover. The Tung Chee-hwa government implemented the “85,000-50 policy” in the early days of the handover, but the Asian financial turmoil caused Hong Kong’s property prices to plummet by 70%. Subsequently, the Donald Tsang government introduced measures such as “Sun Jiu Zhao”, and property prices gradually recovered and continued to rise. Successive governments have emphasized the importance of housing policies. Over the past 25 years, Shi Yongqing, founder of Centaline Group, believes that there is “rigid demand” in the Hong Kong property market, and the problem of housing is supply. Chiu Kwok-wai, director-general of the Public Housing Federation, lamented that if the government had continued to implement the “85,000 policy”, the housing problem today would not have been so severe.
The Hong Kong property market has experienced many ups and downs since the handover. Shi Yongqing, the founder of Centaline Group, recalled that in 1997, the economy and investment were booming, and the property market was booming. After the Chief Executive Tung Chee-hwa came to power, he launched the “85,000 Plan”, in order to increase supply to lower property prices. However, the “Asian Financial Crisis” encountered the “Asian Financial Crisis”. Under the double pressure, Hong Kong’s property prices fell sharply. Seventy percent.
Shi Yongqing analyzed that the Tung Chee-hwa government thought that ordinary people might afford a building and that rent reduction would be beneficial to the economy; however, it did not expect the fall in asset prices, which would cause great damage to the entire economy. A lot of wealth was evaporated, and the owners became negative assets. “The floor itself is worth 100 10,000 yuan, it fell to 300,000 yuan, but you need 800,000 yuan from the bank, and if you want to save 500,000 yuan and sell it to the building first, it will be miserable for people like this.”
Zhao Guowei: Fang Ce went from extreme to extreme
However, the “80,000 Plan” has increased the supply of public housing units, and the “Sun Jiu Tiao” has included the suspension of HOS flats and the conversion of flats into public rental housing. Historically low, but then gradually recovered, as of the end of March this year, the average waiting time for general applicants reached 6.1 years. Zhao Guowei, director-general of the Public Housing Federation, said that looking back now, the “85,000 policy” seems to be a reasonable approach. “If we might continue to promote the ‘85,000 policy’ at that time, I believe that the housing problem today would not be so severe.”
At the end of 2002, the “Sun Jiu Tricks” launched to stabilize the property market, including cancelling land auctions and suspending the sale of HOS flats, gradually took effect during the tenure of the Donald Tsang government, and property prices gradually recovered. Zhao Guowei described that in the first 15 years of Hong Kong’s return to the motherland, Hong Kong’s housing policy “went from one extreme to the other.” After Leung Chun-ying came on stage, the number of housing units was overdrafted. “There is no point in building land. Most of the reclamation is used for infrastructure, not for housing purposes.”
Difficult to buy property due to policy mistakes
Shi Yongqing also believes that the biggest problem with housing in Hong Kong is supply. “The government can’t increase the supply, so it has to manage the demand. I can’t help you to buy a house. I’m going to stop you from buying a house. You need a stress test. The strength is enough to buy a house.” He believes that the productivity of Hong Kong people is not bad, and Hong Kong is not without land. He criticized that many previous governments did not dare to break the rules and did not give priority to housing issues. “The government should have a clear attitude: ‘I am the first to live in housing, and others make way.'” He expressed his support for all increases in land supply. “Because I know that it’s not going to be smooth if you propose it. If you propose it, it will be hindered by people… Thousands of sails will be put together, and those who want to stop you will not have much effort to stop you. Frontiers first.”
Shi Yongqing’s property prices are hovering at the current level
Looking forward to the future development of the property market, Shi Yongqing pointed out that the current demand from investors and speculators has been suppressed, and it is difficult for them to rise significantly; however, the “rigid demand” of users has not been met, so it is expected that the future property prices will have the greatest chance of hovering at the current level. The number of immigrants is too large to sell. After one month, the price will be reduced, and following two months, the price will be reduced by more; Properties below 10,000 yuan are not difficult to sell.”
Zhao Guowei also pointed out that it took 10 years for public housing projects to change from raw land to mature land, and then to build flats. Therefore, although the recent two governments have claimed to increase the supply of land and housing, they have not achieved significant results yet. The waiting time for public housing is expected to continue to increase, and there will be a chance to ease it in 2027 and 2028. He expressed his support for the new government’s announcement of “increasing the volume and speed” of housing supply, but expects the new government to hand over specific plans. He also mentioned that the flats in Kai Yan Court, one of the current HOS flats, are only 186 square feet, and the new government should allow public units to “upgrade the quality” so that households can form families or live together with children and adults.
Originally published on AM730 https://www.am730.com.hk/Life/Special Issue/Shi Wing-ching’s Comment on Housing Policy-The Problem is Supply-Zhao Guowei-Relieving the Waiting for Public Housing by 5 Years/326425
