| author | Suchot Thirawanrat |
|---|
Share comments : Profits of listed companies in 2Q22 are good.
because energy stocks
article “Think, Share, Share” In this issue, I would like to write my views on the profits of listed companies in the 2Q22 (2Q22) and the outlook for the second half of 2022, which will affect the overall investment in the Thai stock market.
Since all listed companies in the Stock Exchange of Thailand have reported the full financial statements of 2Q22 for all companies. with a total net profit of 345 billion baht, growing +15.3% YoY and +36.0% QoQ. Consolidated net profit in 2Q22 will be Bt2755 billion (accounting for 80% of total net profit), growing +37.5% YoY and +28.5% QoQ. from the high price of crude oil and the higher refining margin and is the main reason that analysts in the market Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) forecast of the SET index to 103.8 baht/share, or +3.4% compared to the forecast. at the beginning of the month Last July, however, if we analyze more in detail, that is, when we cut off the profit from the energy stocks that the research department has released the analysis, it was found that “total profits of Thai listed companies – excluding energy stocks ” will be equal to 1240 billion baht, or growth of only +3.5% YoY and +2.7% QoQ. Therefore, the total net profit that we see outstanding growth in 2Q22 and including the revised analyst forecast. It might just be an illusion that only some stocks in 2Q22 will be falling. This might result in energy stocks performing past cyclical peaks in 2Q22.
Back to other stocks In addition to energy stocks, though “Total profit of Thai listed companies – excluding shares in the energy sector” In 2Q22, there will not be much growth. But I estimate that Performance trend of stocks in this group will recover significantly in the second half of 2022, as most connected to the tourism sector domestic consumption At the same time, stocks in food producers various industrial plants It is expected that profit margins will recover. due to the cost of raw materials began to gradually decline in line with the trend of crude oil prices However, there may be some risk factors related to the minimum wage hike. But I estimate that the impact of the minimum wage increase on the profit margins of listed companies is not very high today. This is because most listed companies have made some adjustments over the past several years, such as the use of automatic-semi-automatic machines. to work more, etc., including most of the employee expenses of listed companies. Be in the group with income above the minimum wage when analyzed as follows: I estimate that the overall view of the SET index may not have much more upside. But we should probably start to see a change in playgroups. from the energy stocks that have risen a lot in the past to shares in the retail sector, food exports, commercial banks Including stocks that welcome the opening of the country, etc. Therefore, the guidelines for investing in the Thai stock market in the second half of the year Therefore, we should not focus on the level of the SET index, but rather focus on individual stocks.
that the performance tends to recover outstandingly, including that there is a valuation that is not expensive. I estimate that this reflects the expectation that the Thai economy will recover. especially the tourism and consumption sectors in the country of foreign investors as well.
For investment risk factors that still need to be watched in the second half of the year. 1. Foreign factors include the economic conditions of the western nations. (US-Europe) at risk of entering a recession is increasing steadily. including the geopolitical conflict between China and Taiwan. There is a chance that China will use more pressure measures and affect the investment climate and 2. Domestic factors are the risk of flooding in Thailand. during the rainy season this year from the La Nia phenomenon, which may affect the projected growth rate of the Thai economy this year.
Suchot Thirawanrat
Research Director KGI Securities (Thailand) Company Limited :KGI
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