On April 5, 2023, the Chinese aircraft carrier Shandong was photographed by the Ministry of Defense of Japan in the Pacific Ocean regarding 300 kilometers south of Okinawa. This was the first time the Shandong had entered the Pacific region. The military exercise was seen as a response to the meeting between Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen and US House Speaker McCarthy. However, in modern warfare, new weapons such as missiles and unmanned aerial vehicles may erode the strategic position and value of aircraft carriers. Although they are still useful for military intimidation, it is uncertain whether 2023 marks the end of the era of aircraft carriers. China’s aircraft carrier development program began in 1985 with the purchase of the decommissioned Royal Australian Navy HMS Melbourne. Liaoning ship was the first aircraft carrier in service with the Chinese Navy’s surface forces. Shandong ship, launched in April 2017, is China’s first domestically-made aircraft carrier and also the second aircraft carrier of the Chinese Navy. The Fujian ship, China’s second domestically-made aircraft carrier, was launched on June 17, 2022, and is currently in the commissioning stage. Retired Chinese naval officers and other naval experts predict that by the 2030s, China may have five to six aircraft carriers. Despite the theorizing, the Chinese navy has little military practice with aircraft carriers. The Liaoning ship and the Shandong ship mostly patrol the Yellow Sea area and have never left the first island chain range. The Shandong warship’s patrol to the Western Pacific is of a “pathfinding” nature, allowing the Chinese navy to become familiar with the Pacific Ocean battlefield environment and to hone crew combat capabilities and psychology.
This article is “The Glocal Global Political and Economic Weekly Report”, which selects and analyzes weekly international events in three dimensions: point, line, and surface. The Glocal offers members-only subscription content:〈Reader Subscription〉。
This week’s The Glocal Global Political and Economic Weekly, the topic is locked on the Chinese aircraft carrierShandong shipOn April 5, it entered the Pacific military exercise. This is the first time that the Shandong ship entered the Pacific region. The military exercise pointed to the meeting between Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen and US House Speaker McCarthy. During modern warfare, a large number of new weapons such as missiles and unmanned aerial vehicles are eroding the strategic position and value of aircraft carriers. Although aircraft carriers are still useful for the purpose of military intimidation, 2023 may not be the era of aircraft carriers. If China It is still “infatuated” with aircraft carriers and adopts a vigorous manufacturing and development strategy commonly known as “downloading dumplings”. A wrong strategic direction may put China at a disadvantage in modern warfare and further distance it from the United States.
【Point】—Shandong Ship entered the Pacific Ocean for the first time:
China’s second aircraft carrier “Shandong Ship” and several other Chinese naval vessels passed through the Bashi Channel south of Taiwan on April 5, heading for military exercises in the Western Pacific. This is the first time that the Shandong warship has appeared in the Pacific Ocean. China’s military exercise has been tracked and followed by Taiwan and Japan in real time.
Taiwan’s Defense Minister Qiu Guozheng pointed out on April 6 that the Shandong ship was sailing 200 nautical miles (370 kilometers) from the east coast of Taiwan in this military exercise, and the Taiwan National Army sent warships to monitor the Shandong ship within a distance of 5 to 6 nautical miles. Qiu Guozheng, citing intelligence from the Ministry of National Defense, said that several fighter jets and helicopters were carried on the deck of the Shandong ship. As of April 6, no planes had been seen taking off from the deck. It is unknown whether China will include fighter jet training in the long-distance voyage exercise.
The Ministry of Defense of Japan also confirmed that three Chinese naval ships, including the Shandong ship, were in the south of Okinawa (Hateruma IslandAbout 300 kilometers south) sailing in the Pacific Ocean. The international community generally speculates that the Shandong warship’s exercise in the Pacific is a countermeasure taken by China because of dissatisfaction with Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen and US House Speaker Kevin Owen McCarthy in California.
In fact, the Chinese People’s Liberation Army’s “bright sword” in the Indo-Pacific region is no longer news. Even if it dispatches an aircraft carrier to participate in military exercises to “show muscles” it is not new. It shows that there is a certain degree of lag in Chinese naval armament and tactics.
【Line】——China’s Aircraft Carrier Development Plan:
China’s aircraft carrier development program can be traced back to 1985, when China purchased the decommissioned Royal Australian NavyHMS Melbourne. The Australian government originally intended to tow the Melbourne to China for dismantling and scrapping, but China believed that the Melbourne might provide a template for China’s sea power to build aircraft carriers in the future, so it decided to hand over the Melbourne to the Chinese navy for naval engineers to study.
Liaoning shipIt is the first aircraft carrier in service with the Chinese Navy’s surface forces. It was originally positioned as a training ship, serving as a platform for naval trials, training, and familiarization with aircraft carrier operations; Incorporated into a naval combat formation.
The predecessor of the Liaoning ship was built for the Soviet NavyKuznetsov class aircraft carrierVaryag (Варяг), construction stopped following the disintegration of the Soviet Union in 1991. At that time, the Varyag was less than 70% complete in the Black Sea shipyard. In 1995, it withdrew from the establishment of the Russian Navy and was owned by Ukraine in the name of debt repayment. Announced for sale.
Because China expects to develop its maritime power in the long run, the military has always wanted to “include” the Varyag, so it sent a high-level delegation to inspect Varyag in 1995, but the Chinese central government did not approve the purchase due to the international situation. , so the Varyag ages naturally without a seller.
Until 1998, Chairman of Hong Kong Chuanglu GroupXu ZengpingIn order to purchase the Varyag, he registered and established “Macau Chuanglu Tourism and Entertainment Company” in his own name, and purchased the aging Varyag for US$20 million, claiming that he intends to transform the Varyag into a floating hotel worth US$200 million and casinos. But in fact, Xu Zengping himself is a former soldier of the People’s Liberation Army, Macau Chuanglu Company was entrusted by the Chinese Navy to purchase the Varyag on its behalf, and the words of opening floating hotels and casinos are just cover-ups.
After the Varyag was purchased by Macau Chuanglu Company, it was then towed to China for research and transformation, and became the current Liaoning ship.The refitted Liaoning ship went to sea for the first time on August 10, 2011 for testing. It can carry up to 36 fighters and can be configured with 3 seats.Model 730 Gatling machine gun(CIWS) and 3 setsHongqi-10 short-range ship-to-air missile system。
The Shandong ship is China’s first domestically-made aircraft carrier following the service of the Liaoning ship, and it is also the second aircraft carrier of the Chinese Navy. It was launched in April 2017Ofuna Heavy IndustriesThe shipyard is launched.Compared with the Liaoning ship, the Shandong ship upgraded the angle of the landing deck of the fighter to make it more favorableJ-15 fightertakeoff and landing. In addition, the deck of the Shandong ship allows the bridge and flight control areas to be separated, thereby improving operational efficiency.
And China’s second domestically-made aircraft carrier, the Fujian ship, was launched on June 17, 2022, and is currently in the commissioning stage. In addition to the military configuration of the Shandong ship, the Fujian ship is also equipped with a CATOBAR lifting system and an electromagnetic catapult. According to the predictions of retired Chinese naval officers and other naval experts, by the 2030s, China may have five to six aircraft carriers, indicating that China still has the idea of making aircraft carriers.
[Face]——Is 2023 still the era of aircraft carriers?
In the past, most of the wars China participated in were land wars (such as the Korean War and the Vietnam War, etc.), which led China to pay too much attention to the development of ground forces and made the Chinese navy weak. Therefore, China hopes to build aircraft carriers to enhance sea power and amphibious combat capabilities. Since the Shandong ship was launched in 2017, there have been a large number of warship strategy research papers in China, discussing how to use two aircraft carriers to perform escort missions, anti-submarine warfare and training exercises, and even discussing how two aircraft carriers with combat capabilities can be used in simulated confrontation with imaginary enemy forces The possibility of confrontation in the “red and blue exercise”.
However, despite the generation of a large number of theories, the Chinese navy has no more military practice. The Liaoning ship and the Shandong ship mostly carry out patrol missions in the Yellow Sea area. The farthest they sailed was Hong Kong (the Liaoning aircraft carrier patrolled Hong Kong in 2017), and never left.first island chainrange.
Back to the topic, the Shandong warship’s patrol to the Western Pacific is of a “pathfinding” nature, allowing the Chinese navy to become familiar with the battlefield environment in the Pacific Ocean and hone the crew’s combat capabilities and psychology. Compared with the Liaoning ship and the Fujian ship, the Shandong ship is the “best option” for the PLA’s exercise. The reason is that the purpose of the exercise is to counter the meeting between Tsai Ing-wen and McCarthy and must be carried out immediately. The Liaoning ship, which is currently under regular maintenance, is difficult to implement immediately. The mission (it will take more than half a year to complete the maintenance work), and the Fujian ship is still in the adjustment and test stage and has not yet officially entered service. In addition, China considers factors such as the confidentiality of the details of the warship, so it chooses the Shandong ship for this military exercise task.
On the other hand, since this military exercise is intended to deter the United States, China is trying to use actual actions to reiterate its position and its long-distance combat capabilities. According to the annual report on China’s military activities released by the Pentagon in 2021, the content analyzes the emerging capabilities of the Chinese People’s Liberation Army Navy relative to the U.S. Navy. The report points out that the U.S. Navy still has considerable advantages in combat capabilities and the number of warships compared with the Chinese Navy.
In the long run, it may be difficult for Chinese shipyards to maintain current production rates and maintain today’s maintenance intensity, as some fleets in the Chinese Navy line are aging, and shipyards may have to slow down construction to accommodate the modernization and maintenance of aging ships.
In addition, the aircraft carrier is a product of the traditional navy, which can provide the army with a transfer and supply platform at sea, and was an invincible “sea behemoth” in the 20th century. However, as the world enters the era of modern warfare, a large number of new weapons such as missiles and drones are put into use, which will squeeze the strategic value of aircraft carriers at sea. For example, when military technology is so advanced that relatively low-cost weapons (such as missiles) can easily destroy high-cost aircraft carriers, aircraft carriers should not be the focus of national military development. If China is still “obsessed” with the traditional value of aircraft carriers and vigorously develops aircraft carriers, this strategic mistake may put China at a disadvantage in modern warfare, making it difficult for China to “keep abreast” with the US military power as it wishes.
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In conclusion, the Chinese aircraft carrier Shandong’s entry into the Pacific Ocean for military exercises has sparked concerns and speculation from neighboring countries, particularly Taiwan and Japan. As the Chinese navy continues to develop and expand its aircraft carrier fleet, questions arise regarding the validity of aircraft carriers in modern warfare, especially as new weapons and tactics continue to emerge. The Glocal’s analysis sheds light on the background and development of China’s aircraft carrier program, while also highlighting the potential risks and challenges China may face in pursuing this strategy. Only time will tell how China’s pursuit of aircraft carriers will fare in the future of global politics and military tactics.
