2024-02-12 18:08:25
In the days before Shan State National Day on February 7, both the Northern and Southern Shan State Armed Forces issued statements. Stated that there will be a crackdown on human trafficking. Online scammers are called scammers. and suppress drugs At the same time, it still maintains its stance on not participating in armed conflict. After the Three Brotherhood Alliance forces launched “Operation 1027” in Shan State.
Cover photo: (Left) Northern Shan State Army soldiers, SSPP/SSA, photo from 2023. (Right) Southern Shan State Army soldiers, RCSS/SSA, photo from 2013. (Source: File photo/SSPP/Prachatai)
TNLA Taang Army soldiers patrol in Nam Shiang town. The central city of the Ta-ang region. Photo published on December 18, 2023 (Source: File photo/Shwe Phee Myay News Agency)
File photo of MNDAA Kokang soldiers patrolling occupied areas in northern Shan State. Source: The Kokang
A lot has happened since the launch of “Operation 1027” by the Three Brotherhood Alliance (3HBA), reinvigorating the rebellion once morest military dictatorship. After the Burmese army staged a coup on February 1, 2021
While there are doubts as to whether the opposition takeover and Operation 1027 were a coordinated effort between different groups, the National Unity Government (NUG), a pro-democracy group created to The shadow anti-dictatorship government, the Three Brotherhood Alliance (3HBA), the Kachin Independence Army (KIA), and the Shan State Progressive Party (SSPP) have yet to be revealed. In other words, 3BHA is an independent group.
Colonel Naw Bu, spokesman for the Kachin Army KIA, confirmed that his organization was not involved. With Operation 1027, the SSPP group said the same thing. But what was strange regarding this was that in the Three Brotherhood Alliance, which includes The Kokang Army MNDAA, the Ta’ang Army TNLA and the Arakan Army AA, and the Northern Shan State Army SSPP and the Kachin Independence Army KIA are all members. The Federal Political Negotiation and Consultative Committee (FPNCC) is led by the United Wa State Army (UWSA), which is considered a political alliance.
Further complicating the situation is that the Wa Army UWSA received control over the towns of Hopang and Panlong from the Three Brotherhood Alliance 3BHA following the group captured the towns from the Burma Army. Although both Ho Pang and Pan Lon had previously been legally designated as part of the Wa Autonomous Region, But in fact the Burmese government is the administrator of the city. Until January 10th, an announcement on the Wa Channel page stated that the Wa Army UWSA had officially annexed the two towns as part of the Wa State.
The Wa Army UWSA stated that their position on Operation 1027 was neutral. and still maintains its neutral stance even though two cities have been recaptured.
Statement of the two Shan State Armies, North and South
Meanwhile, the two Shan State armies issued separate statements on Jan. 29 following each group held a meeting of their respective political organizations’ central committees.
By the Shan State Restoration Council or the Southern Shan State Army (RCSS/SSA) with headquarters at Doi Tai Laeng. Southern Shan State issued a statement of 6 points, emphasizing its position that it would use negotiations to solve Burma’s political problems. and promised to approach every organization to negotiate.
In point 3 of the statement it is stated that “Only the Federation of Democratic Burmese must be established. The political crisis of the Burmese Union will be resolved.”
Shan State Army RCSS/SSA statement emphasizes ASEAN’s role in mediating peace negotiations They called on ASEAN to make the conflict in Burma their responsibility. and allow ASEAN to mediate negotiations to end the crisis in Burma
RCSS/SSA also emphasizes that there should be lasting reconciliation between the various ethnic groups in Shan State.
The RCSS/SSA statement concludes by stating that they will aim to eliminate drugs. Aiming to prevent and suppress online fraud and human trafficking in the area. They are in control
As for the Shan State Progressive Party Or the Northern Shan State Army SSPP/SSA, which has its headquarters at Ban Hai Base, Gezi District, issued a statement stating its focus on domestic matters such as anti-tyranny Opposition to racial nationalism Oppose border expansionism and oppose narrow nationalist ideas
However, the Northern Shan State Army SSPP/SSA shares the same position as the Southern Shan State Army RCSS/SSA in that they want to establish a democratic federation. anti drug and combating online scams, also known as scammers
The conflict between ethnic groups in Shan State is an undercurrent.
However, the statements of these two Shan armies did not provide satisfactory answers to the goals of the Shan people or all people living in Shan State.
The Southern Shan State Army RCSS/SSA appears to be pinning its hopes on a negotiated settlement by ASEAN to end the political and military conflict that will eventually lead to a federation solution.
A statement from the RCSS/SSA stated that they will take care of the people within the area. They are in control But it said nothing regarding the situation in northern Shan State. At present, the majority of Shan people and other ethnic groups is being forced to annex parts under its control Palaung Army or Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) Kokang Army (MNDAA)
The Southern Shan State Army RCSS/SSA withdrew from northern Shan State in late 2021 through the combined forces of the Northern Shan State Army SSPP/SSA and the Ta’ang Army TNLA, and possible UWSA cooperation. This is believed to have been an order from China, as the RCSS has not returned to northern Shan State since.
However, on 29 November 2023, both the Southern Shan State Army (RCSS/SSA) and the Northern Shan State Army (SSPP/SSA) signed an official ceasefire following years of fighting with each other. Including a promise to find a way to finally end the remaining disputes.
Some people think that the two Shan State Army groups joining hands is probably because Three Brotherhood Alliance 3BHA seizes towns in Shan State This made the two groups of the Shan State Army think that they should respond by working together. But both groups denied this. and said that the ceasefire negotiation process has been ongoing since before the Three Brotherhood Alliance 3BHA had Operation 1027.
Looking at the recent statement from the Northern Shan State Army SSPP/SSA, Although they did not clearly state that What groups of people are they referring to when they talk regarding resisting expansionism? But analysts say they refer to two armed groups that are members of the Triple Brotherhood Alliance, TNLA, and the MNDAA.
In the statement that said it was once morest dictatorship. and oppose nationalism in the form of racialism Of course, they mean the Burmese military government. While the term narrow or blind nationalism is more likely to refer to the Ta’ang Army, TNLA, and Kokang MNDAA, which have expanded into areas where the Shan population is the majority.
Although the Northern Shan State Army SSPP/SSA has stated that they will work with any organization that has anti-dictatorship principles, Oppose ethnic nationalism Oppose border expansionism and once morest narrow nationalism But it is unclear if they have any groups in mind that they would like to collaborate with.
In short, inter-ethnic conflicts or between ethnic forces are now brewing. And given the recent statements by the Shan State Army over the SSPP/SSA, it looks even more likely that a serious conflict will take place. What we don’t know is when it will erupt or how it will expand from here.
Compiled from
SSPP & RCSS: Two Shan armies issued statements in the midst of ongoing civil war, Shan Herald Agency For News, 01-02-2024
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