In the recently ended battle, the Christian forces emerged victorious, using some prohibited and dangerous weapons. However, according to Christian circles, this battle was not merely a sectarian issue, but rather a result of the accumulation of crises. It was seen as a political message to those concerned inside and outside the country, that Christians cannot be bypassed by decisions issued by the timekeeper, without returning to the cabinet. This was to prevent further crises in the country due to the absence of a president.
A video of Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri’s meeting with Prime Minister Najib Mikati gave the impression that the country’s daily affairs are proceeding normally despite the Christian boycott. This was seen as a clear message to those who seek to disrupt the government.
For the first time, Christian institutions entered the battle and sent a message that they will resist any attempt to impose a president who does not enjoy the support of the Christian parliamentary blocs, and prevent the caretaker government from making decisions in the absence of the president.
These messages have revealed three disturbing matters at the regional and international levels. The first is the election of a president close to the Saudi axis, the second is the Saudi-Iranian agreement whose impact on Lebanon is still unclear, and the third is the exclusion of US Assistant Secretary of State Barbara Leaf from her visit to Lebanon to meet with Christian leaders.
The battle of the hour proved that Christian institutions are still capable of disrupting the government, and they are ready to take their last breath to preserve their existence. The idea of electing a president only with the consent of the Islamic forces is impossible regardless of the support he has.
Franjieh is not clinging to the cover of one of the two Christian leaders as accepting one of them is a matter that serves him. Franjieh is the only one who can garner support from non-Christian representatives, and his chances of being elected president are still the same.
Until now, things are stagnant, and there is a warning of the sectarian messages that could lead the country to bad consequences.
The battle of the hour ended with a small victory, in which the Christian forces used many weapons, some of which were dangerous and forbidden somewhere.
but, mistaken who believes, According to Christian circles, behind this battle is an hour-plus issue, or a purely sectarian issue, as a result of the accumulation of crises, which have reached an extent that led to his declaration to the public, to pass political messages to those concerned inside and outside, that it is not permissible to bypass Christians by a decision issued by my timekeeper, from Without returning to the cabinet, lest he withdraw later on other issues in light of the impossibility of electing a president for the republic, to suggest that things are normal in the absence of the president.
A video of Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri’s meeting with Prime Minister Najib Mikati gave an idea that the country’s daily affairs, which are subject to the scope of caretaker affairs, proceed in isolation from the Christian boycott, and there are those who intend to present this matter as a clear-cut message, to those who seek to disrupt the government, that power is still We have got you covered.
However, the reaction this time was different, and for the first time the institutions entered the battle, and sent a message that they will resist any attempt to impose a president for the republic who does not enjoy the support of one of the weighty Christian parliamentary blocs on the one hand, and in anticipation to prevent the exploitation of the presidential vacuum by the caretaker government. , by making decisions in the absence of the president, related to imminent entitlements in the event that the presidential vacancy extends.
This message was not confined to the interior only, but extended to the outside, so that the developments revealed three disturbing matters for the Christian team, at the regional and international levels. A president close to the Saudi axis, and the second is the Saudi-Iranian agreement, whose results are still vague, but it must have an impact on Lebanon, so that it can be at the expense of these forces. As for the third, it is the exclusion of US Assistant Secretary of State Barbara Leaf from her visit to Lebanon to Christian leaders, as a clear message that coincides with what Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri is spreading that the complex is with Christian leaders and not with others, in addition to what appeared to be leaked about European and American sanctions on Christian leaders. Especially, under the guise of disagreement and obstruction.
The third message also came from Christian institutions, major merchants, and investors, in addition to health and educational institutions, and banks. The collapse began to affect all of them, but to different degrees. The exclusive agency law was issued at the push of the Islamic forces, while the health and educational institutions began to suffer massive losses, which threatens their continuity. . As for the banks, there is nothing wrong with that, and all of them are considered influential in the Christian environment. The battle of the “hour” proved that they still have the ability to disrupt, and they are ready to take their last breath to preserve their existence.
These messages, in the opinion of a Christian reference, made the idea of electing a president only with the consent of the Islamic forces impossible, no matter how much support he had, and this is what the French began to read through their retreat from the Franjieh-peace proposal, of course, while recognizing the supportive Saudi role that affected the French retreat.
In addition, the reference reveals that the agreement between the Christian forces is still not available, rather it seems far away, and that betting on the Bkerke retreat next week is not appropriate, and the grudges are still at their height, and there is no hope for rapprochement, but at least any possibility has been executed. Assuming what was going on previously.
On the other hand, a pro-Franjieh Christian source believes that the Christians themselves bear the responsibility for voluntarily leaving power, boycotting it, and distancing themselves from executive decision-making mechanisms, even in narrow matters of conducting business, once because of the boycott, and again because of the Christian differences that prevent agreement on a single name for the presidency. .
He indicates that regional détente will affect Lebanon, as everyone is waiting for how things will crystallize externally in a way that allows securing a quorum for electing a president for the country, on the basis that if a certain party is able to secure 65 votes for its candidate, then it is undoubtedly unable to secure a quorum for the session, which requires the presence of 86. deputy.
And he confirms that Franjieh is not clinging to the cover of one of the two Christian leaders, while recognizing that accepting one of them is a matter that serves him, and that his leadership is sufficient for the presidency of the republic, especially since the meeting of the four Christian poles who met in Bkerke in 2014 confirmed the eligibility of any of them to assume the presidency, and they have not changed and are still. themselves.
He stresses that Franjieh is the only one who is currently able to collect this number of votes from non-Christian representatives, and his chances are still the same, and he was not affected by everything that happened.
The source admits that the bet has become closer to the head of the “Lebanese Forces” party, Samir Geagea, and not to the head of the “Free Patriotic Movement” Gebran Bassil, who closed the doors permanently with Franjieh, and even with “Hezbollah”, which has reduced its contacts with it to the lowest limits.
The source indicates that Bassil was able to pass the name of Jihad Azour to many Christian forces, and had it not been for the categorical refusal of the “forces”, he would have been able to reach his goal by suggesting that there is a Christian consensus on his candidate, and he would have put pressure on the Islamic forces.
The source concludes that until now, things are stagnating, warning of the game of sectarian messages that could lead the country to a place with bad consequences.
In conclusion, the battle of the “hour” has highlighted the deep-seated issues within the Lebanese political landscape. It is no longer just a sectarian issue, but a culmination of crises that have led to instability in the country. The institution’s involvement in the battle has sent a clear message that they will resist any attempt to impose a president for the republic who does not enjoy the support of one of the weighty Christian parliamentary blocs. Meanwhile, the regional and international implications of the presidential vacuum have become more apparent, with the exclusion of Western officials from meetings with Christian leaders and possible sanctions looming. The road to electing a president remains uncertain, with no agreement in sight among Christian forces. The country remains at a crossroads, with the looming threat of sectarian messages leading to further turmoil.