Shadow of Deterrence

Shadow of Deterrence

There has been a lot of talk about Israeli attacks on Iran’s nuclear facilities, but this is a very difficult matter in practice. US President Joe Biden said on October 1 that Israeli attacks on Iran’s nuclear facilities are unlikely.

There are extremists in Israel who say that Iran’s nuclear facilities should be targeted, but such a decision would be very difficult for the Israeli government. On the one hand, US consent is required and on the other hand there are technical complications.

Iran’s nuclear facilities are located more than 1000 kilometers away from Israel. Israeli bombers would need to refuel to get there and back.

A major difficulty is that Israeli aircraft will also need an escort fleet to operate in Iranian airspace. According to a conservative estimate, the Israeli Air Force will have to employ 100 aircraft to target Iran’s nuclear facilities.

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Due to the long distance, the Israeli planes will have to pass through the airspace of Iraq, Syria and Jordan. For this it is necessary to obtain permission from these three countries.

Iran has already warned that any country that allows Israel to use its airspace for attacks must be prepared for retaliation.

The fact that Iran’s two main nuclear facilities are located in Natanz and Fordo cannot be ignored. The uranium enrichment plant at Natanz is located very deep. Fordo is located in the center of a mountain.

Destroying these nuclear facilities requires bombs that can rip through tens of meters of rock and reinforced concrete.

Israel dropped a 2,000-pound GBU-31 bomb on four buildings in Beirut last month to kill Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah. This bomb is unable to destroy Iran’s nuclear facilities.

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For this, a bomb 6 meters long and weighing 30,000 pounds is required, which the United States has. It is not clear whether Israel has this bomb or not. These bombs cannot carry F-sixteen, F-fifteen and F-thirty-five.

Israel can also target oil installations. In case of any major attack, there is a possibility of a major regional war. Even if Israel targets military installations in Iran, there is a possibility of a strong response.

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