OTTAWA — Prime Minister Justin Trudeau finds himself in familiar territory Thursday as the leader of a minority government that needs the support of another party to pass the budget and avoid another federal election.
But this time around, there’s an official deal to ensure Canadians won’t be heading back to the polls anytime soon. Indeed, an agreement with the leader of the New Democratic Party (NDP), Jagmeet Singh, will allow the Trudeau government to obtain the support of New Democrat MPs during the vote on the budget.
However, the budget presented in the afternoon by the Minister of Finance, Chrystia Freeland, will be the subject of several key votes in the House of Commons.
The steps to follow
After the budget is tabled on Thursday afternoon, there will be four days of debate on the budget motion tabled by Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland and up to three different votes.
The next steps will take place on the first day of the debate, which is Friday. The Conservatives can present an amendment to the budget first because they are the official opposition. Then, the Bloc Québécois can present a subamendment.
Members will vote on the Bloc subamendment at the end of the second day of debate and on the Conservative amendment at the end of the third day.
The third and final vote is on the budget motion itself, at the end of the fourth day, but these days of debate need not be consecutive.
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When will the votes take place?
Since the House of Commons is taking a two-week break from Monday, it is when the deputies return on April 25 that they will be able to resume the debate and proceed to the three votes. This could be done during the same week or extend until the beginning of May.
Thereafter, the government will introduce a budget implementation bill, which will receive three readings in the House and the Senate.
Are these votes of confidence?
In theory, any of the three votes could be a vote of confidence.
If a government loses a vote on a budget motion, it is likely that it has also lost the confidence of the House. It’s always possible in a minority government, but the Liberals signed an agreement that the NDP will support them on fiscal policy, budget implementation bills, estimates and supply for ensure that this scenario does not occur.
What if the NDP doesn’t get what it wants in return?
The agreement provides “no surprises”, according to the Prime Minister’s Office. The NDP and their leader Jagmeet Singh were briefed on the budget before it was tabled. New Democrats have a good idea of what’s to come and of the Liberals’ commitment to continue working on their shared priorities through 2025.
It therefore seems unlikely that the deal will fall apart soon after it is struck and that Canadians will be called back to the polls soon.
Sarah Ritchie, The Canadian Press