“I need 45 days of peace.” With that request that he transmits to his interlocutors, Serge Massa gets ready to put on the enormous suit of superminister of Economy obtained in the table of balances fronttodista. The message is omnidirectional, but above all it is addressed to its partners in the ruling coalition, where all the internal and external unknowns reside regarding the new stage that has opened. Or the new government to start.
In search of that truce, Massa designed during this weekend initial steps and steps of the first stage of management, which he calls “stabilization” of a sinking ship.
The measures that it tries to keep secret to avoid continuing to increase the expectations that it generated and that could turn against it if they do not give quick results will be announced the day after tomorrow. That’s why he asks for time and support.
Despite the secrecy THE NATION you may have learned that some of those first steps include creating a bonus to absorb part of the mass of pesos in circulationfor which he says he has the acceptance of local banks, some of which are among his traditional friends and sponsors.
The measure would seek to generate effects on the two uncontrolled variables that ejected its predecessor, Silvina Batakis: inflation and dollar. At the same time, he intends discourage devaluation expectations and exchange rate splitting and generate stimuli and confidence so that they enter divided. What a challenge.
Also among the measures in an advanced state of preparation is that of generate fiscal incentives to sectors that export (such as energy, mining, tourism and knowledge economy), which are what Massa calls “the factory to generate dollars.” To avoid a fiscal mismatch, he would seek to establish an advance payment on profits from some specific activities and, above all, external financing, for which he says he has some firm promises from multilateral organizations and international banks. The generation of optimism has always been an attribute of massismoalthough, in recent times, of relative concreteness.
With this objective, the minister, who has not yet taken office, is already preparing a trip to the United States for the third week of this month with the aim of meeting with the authorities of the Treasury, IMF and World Bank in Washingtonand with holders or senior executives of banks and investment funds, in New Yorkin search not only of symbolic support, but of very concrete financing. The relationships you’ve forged so far and boasted about will always be tested like never before..
Massa also plans to make a visit to the Paris Club that his predecessors could not perform and, possibly, to Qatarin search of a contribution from the sovereign fund of that State.
Before the presentation of the measures, the already resigned deputy plans to announce today the entire team that will accompany him and that it was not easy for him to conform, due to defections and reluctance of some of those summoned.
The empty locker until yesterday afternoon at the Ministry of Agriculture, due to the rejection of the two candidates to whom he offered the position, gave an account of the difficulties. The Economist Gabriel Delgado and the until Wednesday deputy chief of staff, George Nemedeclined the offers and (in the case of Delgado) the strong pressure from Massa.
They both had their own reasons for not getting on that ship, but The two are united by mistrust: the threatening shadow of cristicamporismo in the relationship with the agricultural sector and some traumatic experiences suffered in the flesh. For this reason, last night that place had been filled with a massista without autonomy, like Jorge Solmi. The superminister cloak is not yet up to the standards of the tigress and no one knows if he will ever have superpowers.
Background counts. For the second time, Massa is chosen or tolerated by Cristina Kirchner to fill the void, real or symbolic, left by Alberto Fernández. Once for resignation and this time for inaction or incompetence. That is the point of support from which he will try (again) to stand up to twist the course of a Kirchnerist government in a state of decomposition with his imprint. Now, no room for a new failure. All or nothing.
The depth of the current crisis and the dramatic deterioration of the political-economic situation, greater than in 2008, after the defeat in the war against the countryside, are elements that the minister who has not yet taken office intends to assert in his favor. The same as the decline in the power of the vice president. The strength of weakness.
Those are the conditions that Massa now offers as a guarantee of the margin of action that he will have before the decision makers who doubt the acquiescence of the cristicamporismo in the face of the measures that he must adopt to stabilize the dislocated exchange rate and inflation variables. Flashes that led the Government to teeter on the edge of the precipice and allow an income that four weeks before had been prohibited. Peronism in the key of tragic realism.
However, Massa knows that he does not arrive with any blank check or with all the power that he would have claimed. Much less from Cristina Kirchner. That’s why, he had to cede key places that he would have liked to distribute among his own to ensure the fluidity of the implementation of the measuresas well as to dismiss concerns, doubts or suspicions that some presences generate.
The continuity of the Albertista Miguel Pesce at the head of the Central Bank and the camporista enclave in the key area of Energy or the designation of the cristinista Charles Castagneto in the AFIP they are witness cases and cause for limitations and suspicions, although for different reasons. The same as the lack of pronouncements of support from the cristicamporismo, which generates discomfort and suspicion in the Massa environment.
The Castagneto case, imposed by Cristina Kirchner, is the one that arouses the greatest suspicions and concerns. The recent pronouncements of the vice president to advance on fiscal secrecy and the history of discretionary persecution of taxpayers during her presidency open a huge question: will the AFIP be the new SIDE of Kirchnerism? Another challenge for Massa to transform into an asset the greatest liability with which he arrives: confidence.
Both the design of the economic program and the choice of the names that will accompany it in management reflect the work of a tightrope walker to which it is subjected. A novelty for those who until now have perfected themselves in the arts of sleight of hand, juggling and the short gambeta.
The measure of the power with which Massa arrives and the challenge he faces, not only because of the very difficult economic-financial conditions with which he will have to deal, is given by the difficulties he encountered in forming his team.. Many were the shining names that did not want to join the cast, despite the insistence of the budding minister himself. Not only Delgado and Neme refused.
The distrust of the room for maneuver they would have were decisive in rejecting the proposal. Not only because of the vetoes or the lack of support that could come from the cristicamporismo, which Martín Guzmán and Silvina Batakis have already suffered, but for the obstacles and delays with which Alberto Fernández has vampirized his collaborators.
The continuity of Pesce and the appointment of Juan Manuel Olmos as deputy chief of staff show that Fernández is not giving up. His self-perception remains singular and quite contradictory to the majority opinion. His self-esteem recovers remarkably quickly.
After the days of stress, prior to the agreement with Cristina Kirchner for the arrival of Massa, in the last hours he has been busy installing the idea that the arrival of the tigress is not an act of weakness, but of greatness on his part, to ensure the unity of Peronism and avoid the collapse of the Government. None of the few of their own who remain by his side contradicts him, but instead celebrates him. With his spirits recovered, it will be necessary to see if he uses the pen to endorse all the initiatives of his new minister, or saves it.
In the massismo they trust that their partners, both Fernández and the cristicamporismo, will not put obstacles at least in the 45 days in which they hope to have some peace. Hope focuses less on conviction than on necessity. Or in the survival instinct. They have never been so close to losing everything and Cristina Kirchner has never been more involved in the government. For now, 2023 and the electoral ambitions are too far away. Or sufficiently attenuated by fragility.