2023-06-16 22:55:48
The Minister of Economy, Sergio Massa, will define in the next few hours what position to adopt with the imminent maturities for US$ 2,700 million that operate with the International Monetary Fund (FMI) due to the agency’s intransigence in advancing disbursements.
Las talks began more than two months ago when the macroeconomic guidelines established in the Extended Facilities Agreement were already not fulfilled and despite the continuous dialogue, this moment was reached without an agreement.
Such the schedule established in March 2022, andOn Wednesday the 21st, Argentina must pay US$926 million and on Wednesday US$1,787 million, amounts that were matched with a disbursement of US$4,200 million.
But To make this change effective, the IMF had to approve the goals for the first quarter of the year which, obviously, have been bypassed and prevents the approval of the directory.
A Delegation from the Palacio de Hacienda will be in Washington from Monday to continue with the talks, the result of which will depend on whether Massa takes a flight to participate in the final signing. Hence, what finally happens with next week’s expiration is very important.
Last March, when the discussion for the readjustment of reserves was really under way, the IMF accepted a postponement of payments until the signing. But in this case the situation looks less clear.
Negotiations have dragged on for a long time and the points of disagreement are broader and the negative signals are accumulating.
When getting off the plane for his trip to China, Massa had said that he would go to Washington between June 12 and 14, which ultimately did not happen. Yesterday, with clear information from the Ministry of Economy, Vice President Cristina Kirchner insisted that the IMF “is putting a gun to Argentina’s head.” Is this sentence the one that reveals the conditions that the organism is imposing?
The option of a “symbolic payment” to show a gesture of goodwill in the talks that circulated in recent hours was downplayed by an insider on relations with the IMF, who directly maintained that “there is nothing ‘symbolic’ in this type of negotiations.
The dollars to face payments with reserves are not in the Central Bank and that reduces a chance to continue at the negotiating table without defaulting.
Hence, what happens with next week’s maturities will give a better idea of how the negotiations are really going.
The delegation traveling to Washington is made up of Vice Minister Gabriel Rubinstein, the Chief of Advisors, Leonardo Madcur, the Advisor on International Relations issues, Marco Lavagna, and the Secretary of Finance, Raúl Rigo.
In case of a positive course, IMF staff should submit a memo to the board headed by Kristalina Georgieva recommending approval. This entire procedure can take at least three weeks.
Strong sale of the Central Bank
Contrary to what would be ideal in this situation and on the eve of the weekend that leads to the expiration dates, The Central Bank gave this Friday US$ 184 million. In this way, it accumulates sales for US$ 341 million in the month and reserves remain at US$ 31,848. The agricultural dollar contributed U$S 15 million in today’s wheel.
This dynamic supposes that the monetary authority has some wink from the IMF that finally the blood will not reach the river and there will be some kind of bailout.
The “blue” dollar maintained the volatility of the last rounds and recovered $5 of the $7 it had lost on Thursday to close at $492.
The devaluation of the official dollar was 0.15% and remained at $261.30. The gap with the parallel was 88%.
Meanwhile, the MEP rose 1% to $479.35 and the Cash with Settlement fell 1.3% to $487.12. To sustain this stability, the BCRA continued with its interventions through the sale of bonds.
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