The pension reform is likely to cause collateral damage which has been little discussed, until now, in the public debate. This is one of the thoughts that comes to mind when reading a study published on Wednesday 1is March, by Unédic, the joint association that manages unemployment insurance. It brings to light a phenomenon already explored by other research: raising the age of opening of pension rights is likely to result in a greater number of seniors without work.
The A document distributed by Unédic looks in particular at the impact of the November 2010 law, which raised the legal retirement age from 60 to 62. In the preamble, the authors of the note take the precaution of emphasizing that the results they arrive at cannot “to be projected as is” over the coming period, in particular because “generations are not comparable from one decade to another”just like the “economic contexts”. However, this return to the past sheds light on what might happen with the reform under consideration in the Senate, since it also pushes back the age of eligibility for rights by two years.
Between mid-2010 and mid-2022, the number of unemployment benefit recipients aged 60 or over increased by 100,000. under 55, they increased by 38% between 2010 and the period from mid-2021 to mid-2022. This is a much higher increase than that observed for those under 55 (+ 16%). Again, caution is warranted, as “the specific effect of pension reforms on expenditure [pour les] seniors is complex to isolate”several factors being taken into account (economic situation, modification of unemployment insurance rules, demographic evolution, etc.).
Proposals to the Senate
These data converge with those from previous surveys. Two of them, carried out by ministerial departments, were presented at a meeting of the Pensions Orientation Council in January 2022. One indicates that the shift in the legal retirement age from 62 to 64 “would translate” by an increase of “nearly 84,000” the number of recipients of unemployment benefit, “including nearly 60,000” would be 62 and 63 years old. The other shows that such an age measure might tip more people towards the social minima: + 30,000 with regard to the active solidarity income and + 30,000, also, with regard to the allowance for specific solidarity granted to unemployed people at the end of their entitlement – this development being very concentrated on the age groups following 60 years.
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