2023-07-05 10:00:00
« It’s a real bomb that has just been defused. A deliverance, after the suspense that has weighed heavily on the political climate lately. A miracle that is happening in Senegal. »
Alioune Tine, a Senegalese civil society activist and founder of the think tank Afrikajom Center, does not lack hyperbole to describe his relief at Macky Sall’s decision not to run for Senegal. According to him, the reverse decision, constitutionally controversial, would have represented a “ huge risk taking in a tense context in the run-up to the February 2024 elections.
There is a chance that the coalition will go all over the place, or go disunited in the elections.
Pascal Oudiane, researcher in sociology.
Macky Sall announced Monday, July 3, in a long-awaited speech, his decision not to run for a third term as president of the country. His statements created disappointment among his supporters, particularly within his party, the Alliance for the Republic. But they brought down the general tension, which had peaked with deadly demonstrations in early June.
(Re)see: Senegal: Macky Sall will not run for a new term
« For the first time, a president organizes elections without taking part. It’s already something. An individual feat, while his whole party said he had to go. This brings appeasement: he has already solved 80% of the problem “says researcher Pascal Oudiane.
For Alioune Tine, this unexpected decision will open a calmer period, for ” prepare in better conditions a transparent and inclusive election “. However, he regrets that the President did not announce his decision earlier. This would also have allowed him to prepare his succession.
(Re)read:
Which dolphin for Macky Sall?
Because on the side of Benno Bokk Yakaar, the ruling coalition, the person who will succeed Macky Sall is not – yet – designated.
Faced with the mayors who had signed a petition encouraging him to run for a third term, Macky Sall had affirmed that the coalition should “survive beyond 2024”.
Some observers already doubt it. ” When its leader does not represent himself, the party can break up. There is a chance that the coalition will go all over the place, or go disunited in the elections. And in this case, she has a good chance of losingpredicts Pascal Oudiane. But in twelve years, Macky Sall managed to maintain the coalition. Will he succeed in calming everyone down, in proposing someone? »
I have a clear conscience and memory of what I have said, written and repeated, here and elsewhere, that is to say that the term of 2019 was my second and last term.
Macky Sall, Senegalese President.
Political figures close to the presidential camp are beginning to position themselves, such as the current Prime Minister, Amadou Ba, the former Minister of the Interior, Aly Ngouille Ndiaye or Abdoulaye Daouda Diallo, President of the Economic, Social and Environmental Council. Which will not fail to create rivalries, in the absence of a dolphin recognized by the president for the moment.
« It is obvious that ambitions will manifest themselves. Now the question is how the parties are going to organize themselves, describes Alioune Tine. In my opinion, Macky Sall cannot remain indifferent to who will succeed him. I think he is working on it, if he hasn’t already. »
(Re)see: Senegal: the political crisis worries many intellectuals
No change in sight in the face of the opposition
The lack of candidacy of the current president should not change his way of considering the opposition, or his will to recognize the repression. Protests that rocked Senegal in early June left 16 dead according to authorities and at least 23 dead, according to Amnesty International.
(Re)read: “Macky Sall, get out!” : Senegalese demonstrate in Paris
In his July 3 speech, Macky Sall addressed these events: The disastrous objective of the instigators, perpetrators and accomplices of this unprecedented violence was clear: to sow terror, to bring our country to a halt and to destabilize it. It is a real organized crime against the Senegalese nation, against the State, against the Republic and its institutions. ».
« The opposition demands the release of political detainees. Will he give in? Will there be inquests into the deaths? I don’t think it will change much for now. His policy will continue until 2024, as long as he is party leader and President of the Republic, or even after if the next president comes from his ranks. “, Speculates Pascal Oudiane.
(Re)see: Senegal: the resumption of activities in a tense climate
On the Pastef side, the question of the arrest of Ousmane Sonko
If the non-candidacy of Macky Sall made it possible to settle an important part of the problem before the presidential election, there remains another question, just as much a source of friction in Senegal. The big unknown is now the arrest or not of the opponent Ousmane Sonko, very popular among young people.
The parties have time to organize themselves, to choose candidates, to go to the election. Rarely has a competition for the Senegalese presidential election been so open.
Alioune Tine, founder of the think tank Afrikajom Center.
Prosecuted for rape, he was finally sentenced on June 1 to two years in prison and a fine for “ corruption of youth “. His arrest is now up to the prosecution, which could, according to Pascal Oudiane, decide to leave him free to avoid new uprisings.
On the eve of Macky Sall’s speech, Ousmane Sonko had already called on his supporters to ” go out massivelyto oppose the presidential regime. Pascal Oudiane wonders about the mobilization capacities of the opponent in the event of arrest ” Will Sonko’s call be heard by young people? We have to see, if he is arrested, will this mobilization be able to take place, despite his isolation. »
According to the researcher, the chances are slim that the opponent could appear in February 2024. ” The prosecutor can imprison him at any time. Even if he appeals, it takes time. It should be bleached. While opposite, apart from the young people who support him, there is a camp that will do everything to keep him in prison, and will not let go. So I don’t believe it will be here in 2024. »
(Re) see: Senegal: “Macky Sall does not deserve praise”, according to a deputy from Ousmane Sonko’s party (Pastef)
Faced with a favorite for the moment ineligible, he therefore thinks that it would be more strategic for his party, the Pastef, to find him a replacement by then. ” But they bet everything on Sonko, they have no second plan, no internal democracy. You have to look for the alternation elsewhere “, he continues.
The fact remains that the opposition, like the presidential coalition, has more than seven months ahead of it to prepare for the election of February 25, 2024. Alioune Tine observes: “ in 8 months, the parties have time to organize themselves, to choose candidates, to go to the election. Rarely has a competition for the Senegalese presidential election been so open. »
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