Seismologists warn: Istanbul’s fear of the big earthquake

Status: 02/26/2023 02:14 am

Fear has gripped Istanbul since the earthquake in south-eastern Turkey. Experts are certain that the metropolis on the Bosporus, which has millions of inhabitants, is also threatened with a major earthquake in the next few years.

By Markus Rosch, ARD-Studio Istanbul

A geological fault zone runs along the bottom of the Sea of ​​Marmara just 15 kilometers from Istanbul. Here the Anatolian Plate is sliding sideways along the Eurasian tectonic plate – by 25 millimeters every year.

Mark Rosch
ARD-Studio Istanbul

The earth plates push once morest each other, get stuck and discharge the energy once more and once more. So there is a lot of tension building in front of Istanbul. The respected geologist Celal Sengör warns the population with the words “move away from the center”.

Mayor warns of “huge danger”

The mayor also says that it is known that Istanbul is in great danger. With these drastic words, Ekrem Imamoglu warns of the consequences of a possible earthquake. Around 90,000 buildings in the metropolis are at risk, partly because building regulations are often not complied with.

A government amnesty regulation has also legalized many illegally built houses. “Inadequate materials, illegal construction projects, illegal houses, unauthorized modifications to the buildings, inadequate controls – these are all weaknesses of the administration,” says İmamoglu. The mayor of the opposition CHP party, who is on the campaign trail, announces improvements.

Buildings are examined

This is one of the reasons why the condition of many buildings in Istanbul is to be examined in a large-scale campaign. For example in the Bakirköy district, which is particularly prone to earthquakes, on the European side. There are many older buildings next to new ones.

A team from the city administration examines an apartment with drills and measuring devices. The condition and composition of the concrete, but also iron girders are examined. Then there is a log of how to proceed. The only thing that is unclear is how binding that is – and who should pay for conversions.

A tenant reports that everyone here is very nervous. But moving away is not an option because it is too expensive and you don’t know where to go, says Aykut Irevül. He adds that landlords and construction companies in particular now sensed the big deal and ended up charging tenants significantly more.

Demand for controls is high

What is striking: The rush for the city controls is huge. An elderly woman stands in front of her cracked house and complains that her house is 50 years old and that the owner has not invested much in the building so far. The registration list for the controls is also long. An appointment is hard to come by.

The other, more expensive examination is not available to many: the buildings can also be examined by private institutes. But that costs a lot of money. The results are then confidential, which means that every owner can deal with them as they wish.

Protected areas often endangered themselves

Every district in Istanbul has its protection areas, which people should come to in the event of an earthquake. The only problem is that many of these protection areas are too small or are themselves in endangered areas, such as on the Bosporus.

In Cihangir, a densely built-up area, people are supposed to gather on a garage. Aerial photos show that this area, which is itself in danger of collapsing, might be far too small for the tens of thousands of people on site in an emergency. There are similar problems in other parts of the city.

Rush for gear in case of an emergency

Everything that might be needed in extreme cases is currently very popular. Yunus Enre Can runs an outdoor shop. He says that young people in particular are now increasingly coming to him. Whistles, headlamps and especially sleeping bags are bought.

And tents. “Most families prefer a large tent for at least four people. But some also buy larger tents that can accommodate up to eight people or objects,” says Can. However, many items are already sold out.

Istanbul has a contingency plan in case of an earthquake. But many people do not believe that this plan would be enough. After all, what use are the best plans if access routes are blocked by destroyed buildings and there are not enough protective and collection areas.

That is why many Istanbulites are taking earthquake prevention into their own hands: earthquake containers are placed in the garden, if there is a garden. Food and water are stored. And the earthquake backpack with a helmet, first medical aid and clothing is in the apartment for many people.

Earthquake safety: During a building inspection in Istanbul

Benjamin Weber, ARD Istanbul, February 24, 2023 3:44 p.m