Secret documents reveal when Russia would use nuclear weapons

Journalists got acquainted with 29 secret files prepared in 2008-2014. But experts say they are still relevant to Russia’s current military doctrine. Among the leaked documents are scripts for war games and presentations to naval officers.

Leaks show that Russia’s Eastern Military District has rehearsed several scenarios for a Chinese invasion. In one exercise scenario, Russia (dubbed the “Northern Federation”) might respond with a tactical nuclear strike to a second wave of Chinese military attacks (dubbed “The South”).

Other possible scenarios for the use of tactical nuclear weapons are listed in a training presentation for naval officers unrelated to the drills for a possible Chinese invasion. It defines the threshold for the use of nuclear weapons as a set of factors under which Russian losses would result in the inability to stop the enemy’s aggression.

In the presented presentation, the criteria for the use of weapons are the landing of the enemy on the territory of Russia, the destruction of units stationed on the border, or an imminent attack by the enemy using conventional weapons. 20 percent are also named as possible conditions. Russian submarines with ballistic missiles, 30 percent. the loss of nuclear submarines, three cruisers, three airfields and a simultaneous hit to the main and reserve coastal control centers.

Also, among the possible reasons for the use of tactical nuclear weapons is the “deterrence of states from aggression <...> or the escalation of military conflicts”, “stopping aggression”, preventing the defeat of Russian forces in battle and increasing the efficiency of the fleet.

Aleksandr Gabuyev, director of the Carnegie Center for Russian and Eurasian Studies in Berlin, told the newspaper that the documents show that the threshold from which Russia can use a nuclear weapon is quite low if Moscow fails to achieve the desired result through conventional means.

William Alberk, director of the Strategy, Technology and Arms Control Department at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, believes that these documents are still relevant to Russian military doctrine. But in Ukraine, he said, Russia probably has a higher threshold for using tactical nuclear weapons because Kyiv does not have its own nuclear capabilities or the ability to launch a full-scale invasion.

The documents are intended to prepare, but they do not specify the rules for the use of such weapons

At the same time, Jack Watling, a senior research fellow at the Royal Joint Services Institute, told the FT that the documents were intended to prepare Russian units for situations where the country might have to use nuclear weapons. The expert added that they do not specify the rules for the use of such weapons.

Since the start of the war, Vladimir Putin has repeatedly spoken regarding Russia’s use of nuclear weapons. For example, in 2023 In October, the president said that in Russian military doctrine there are only two reasons for using a nuclear weapon: in response to the use of such a weapon by an enemy or a threat to the existence of the Russian state. According to him, the government does not intend to reduce this limit: “Do we need to change it?” Why?”.