Secondary activities confirm their recovery at the start of the year

Despite an uncertain international context and an agricultural campaign that seems severely weakened by the rainfall deficit, the national economic situation is generally positive at the start of 2022. According to the Financial Studies and Forecasts Department (DEPF) under the Ministry of Economy and Finance, and following analysis of available economic indicators, secondary activities confirm their recovery, particularly in the electrical energy sector, the construction sector and the extractive sector. This analysis shows that the production of electrical energy improved by 3.4% at the end of the first month of 2022, following an increase of 1.8% a year earlier. This, following the “strengthening of ONEE’s production by 23.7% (following -12.2%) and that of renewable energies relating to Law 13-09 by 12.9% (following +12.6 %), mitigated by the decline in private production of 2.4% (following +5.6%)”. Compared to its pre-crisis level (January 2020), the DEPF indicates in its economic note for the month of March (No. 301) that the production of electrical energy has firmed up by 5.3%. On the construction side, it appears that cement sales increased by 5.8% at the end of the first two months of the current year, following a drop of 10.1% recorded a year earlier, due to the consolidation of sales relating to ready-mixed concrete by 36%, precast (11.9%), building (14.1%) and infrastructure (10.7%). The DEPF also notes the continued dynamism of the extractive sector, following ending 2021 with an improvement in its production index of 2.1%, in consolidation of a 5% increase a year earlier. This sector is benefiting from the positive development of foreign demand addressed to Morocco at the level of OCP activities, according to the DEPF, which underlines that exports of phosphate and derivatives have appreciated, in value, by 123.7% in the first month of 2022. As the DEPF explains in its note, “this change follows an increase of 57.1% at the end of 2021 and 13.3% a year earlier, due to the increase sales abroad of phosphate derivatives by 135.9% and rock phosphate by 34.4%. In terms of domestic demand, household consumption should maintain a positive trend, according to the DEPF, stressing that it is benefiting from the generally favorable behavior of the main income barometers. Management refers in particular to the growth of consumer credit of 2.5% at the end of January 2022, to the convincing level of transfers from MREs and to the maintenance of the compensation effort by the government (5.3 MM from Dhs to end of February 2022) to mitigate the impact of rising international prices on household purchasing power. With regard to the investment effort, it should be consolidated in line with the good performance of imports of capital goods and semi-finished products which increased respectively by 13.5% and 53.1%, to at the end of January 2022, estimates the DEPF in its economic report. The same source indicates, with regard to foreign trade, that exports increased by 23% at the end of January 2022, due to the “increase in sales abroad of almost all export sectors, in particular the phosphates and derivatives, agriculture and agro-food and textile and leather sectors as well as the aeronautics and electronics sectors”. Still according to the DEPF, imports grew at the same time by 39.5% at the end of January, widening the trade deficit by 75.2%; while the Official Reserve Assets (AOR) remain at their end-December 2021 level. This, she continues, ensures coverage for 6 months and 22 days of imports of goods and services. In terms of public finances, the latest economic report shows that “the increase in ordinary revenue of 9.1% at the end of February 2022 resulted in a reduction in the budget deficit, despite the increase in overall expenditure of 2 .5%”. As for the indicators relating to the financing of the economy, they show an improvement in the growth of bank loans of 3.4% at the end of January 2022, but report falls in the stock market indices MASI and MSI 20 respectively of 5.9% and 6.7% during the month of February 2022. This offsets their positive performance compared to the end of December 2021.