Mr. Pongsatorn Parinyawuthichai, Research Department, Office of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) presents the article “Drilling the Behavior and Impact of Luna Coin Traders in Thailand Digital Asset Exchanges”, stating that in the past year Here comes Luna, the Terra Coin, which has a higher return of 16,674% and a lot of interest. The price of Luna hit a high in April 2022, but following UST, Terra’s stablecoin, Luna backed through an algorithmic mechanism that the coin developer ties (Peg) to the US dollar, the price of Luna has reached its peak in April 2022. It cannot remain valued at the rate of $1 UST to $1. thus causing a loss of trust from coin holders and traders. Consequently, the UST coin sells out continuously, affecting the value of Luna as well. Therefore, it is the source of study of the behavior and account characteristics of Luna traders in Thailand.
When looking at the overview of trading value on digital asset exchanges in Thailand in 2022, using Bitcoin or BTC trading value as an indicator of the direction of the digital asset market at different times. found that following April The direction of the digital asset market is in a downtrend.
However, in May, Luna’s trading volume rose sharply, in contrast to Luna’s continued decline in prices following hitting its April highs. for this reason The researchers divided the time period of the data used in the study (1 January 2022 – 22 May 2022) by using the milestones that affect the price of Luna as a divider, which can be divided into 3 periods as follows.
Pre – stage (before May 9) : is the time before the price of UST (stable coin).
It’s regarding to break out of the bind at a rate of 1 UST to $1, or less than $1.
Fall-stage (between May 9-13): This is the period when the price of the UST coin breaks the bound rate. or priced less than 1 USD
Bottom out – stage (following May 13): This is the period when the price of Luna has dropped to its lowest point at that time. And the digital asset trading center in Thailand announced the suspension of Luna temporarily for a period of 1 day.
When looking at the overview of accounts that come into trading in 2022, there are a total of 315,077 accounts, with the proportion of accounts being regarding 99% of domestic investors and 1% of other types of investors. that has a port size in the range 5,000-1,000,000 baht and divide the number of accounts according to the study period as follows
Pre – stage : 36,396 accounts or 11.55%
Fall – stage : 57,300 accounts or 18.19%
Bottom out – stage : 221,381 accounts or 70.26%
Of the total number of accounts trading in Luna, there are 211,723 accounts, approximately 67% of whom have experience in trading other cryptocurrencies. But have never bought Luna and have just started trading in the bottom out. There are 9,658 accounts that come in only to speculate on Luna, representing regarding 3%. factors together as follows:
The first factor is the price of Luna, following it had bottomed out (as of May 13), as well as resumed trading following it was temporarily suspended. The price of Luna has soared to around 400 times (as of May 14) from its lowest point. The price adjustment has increased dramatically, resulting in a large number of people flocking to buy. It is thought that they can profit from periods of high price volatility. This type of behavior may be explained by behavioral biases of traders who often find themselves overconfident. (Overconfidence), that is, forecasting the opportunity to earn higher than it is. while underestimating the risk of loss
The second factor is Confidence in Luna’s project, which was historically a top 10 coin with the most market capitalization in the world. As well as the founder’s announcement of a revival plan to salvage the Lunar coin situation, it has brought in a large number of new traders who have never bought Luna.
However, when looking at the overall picture of traders on Luna, it showed a return on losses of 96%, with the majority of the accounts losing money being those that had just started trading in the bottom-out period.
Summarizing the profit/loss of the accounts of each group of traders studied in the Thailand Digital Asset Trading Center. It was found that the net loss was regarding 980 million baht, which was found that most of the accounts were domestic individuals. The accounts that come in during the fall are the ones with the most losses.
From this study, it can be seen that traders in the digital asset market aim for short-term speculation. including investment according to the current and focus mainly on the high return numbers Ready to accept losses in exchange for the opportunity to earn very high profits in a short period of time. which at times may lack investment diversification and assess the risks
The results of this study will help reflect the trader’s profit and loss over time. To realize careful consideration before deciding to trade in the digital asset market. The actual profit potential may not be as large as expected. In addition, with the nature of digital assets with high price volatility. Therefore, the money invested should not come from borrowing or spending money on a daily basis. And if this money is lost, it must not be a burden to yourself and your family.
