2023-11-29 11:01:43
SCOUTING THE MATCHUPS
When the Patriots run – Edge: Patriots
The Patriots ground game is one of the few elements of the team that has actually improved over the course of the season. Rhamondre Stevenson has strung together several quality outings in a row, including Sunday’s 98-yard effort in the loss to the Giants. Stevenson has his season average up to 3.9 yards per carry after a very slow start, and New England’s ground attack has been solid. Ezekiel Elliott made the most of his nine carries as well, picking up 46 yards for an impressive 5.1-yard average. The Chargers have been average against the run, ranking 14th in the league allowing 110.6 yards per game and 19th with 4.3 yards per carry. Nick Williams mans the nose between Sebastian Joseph-Day and Austin Johnson in front of linebackers Kenneth Murray and Tuli Tuipulotu. That group did well against the Ravens vaunted ground attack save for a late 37-yard touchdown run by wide receiver Zay Flowers that knocked the numbers out of whack. Otherwise, the Chargers held Lamar Jackson and Gus Edwards below 4 yards per carry. The Patriots will look to continue their momentum on the ground, particularly with the struggles of the passing game causing problems.
When the Patriots pass – Edge: Chargers
Los Angeles has been a train wreck all season defending the pass. The Chargers rank dead last, allowing 280 yards per game and 30th at 7.3 yards per pass play. The secondary is in disarray, which is part of the reason they jettisoned J.C. Jackson to the Patriots earlier in the season. Corners Asante Samuel, Michael Davis, Dean Marlowe and Ja’Sir Taylor join safeties Alohi Gilman, Derwin James and Deane Leonard and that group hasn’t been able to contain many teams this season. Despite those terrible numbers, the Patriots passing game has been worse, especially as of late. Mac Jones and Bailey Zappe continue to turn the ball over at an alarming rate and Bill Belichick hasn’t been able to confidently put either of them in charge of the offense for any consistent period of time. Jones has now been pulled from four of the Patriots 11 games, but Zappe has now thrown interceptions in relief in two of them. Making matters worse, Demario Douglas, the lone consistent option in the passing game, left the Giants loss with a possible concussion. There haven’t been a lot of bright spots for the Patriots passing attack and now Belichick can’t seem to decide on a quarterback option.
When the Chargers run – Edge: Patriots
Los Angeles has one of the most versatile backs in the game in Austin Ekeler, who once again is enjoying a fine season. Despite missing almost a month with a high ankle sprain suffered in the opener, Ekler leads the team with four rushing touchdowns and remains a problem in the passing game. While Ekeler is capable of making plays, the Patriots run defense has been on point all season. Coming off another solid effort against the Giants Saquon Barkley, the front seven ranks eighth in the league allowing just 94.1 yards per game on the ground and leads the league with a 3.4-yard average allowed per rush. Those are gaudy numbers for a group led by Lawrence Guy, Davon Godchaux, Christian Barmore and Deatrich Wise in front of steady linebackers Ja’Whaun Bentley and Jahlani Tavai. Look for that stout play to continue against a Chargers offense that averages a pedestrian 103.9 yards per game (20th) on the ground and 4.1 yards per carry (22nd) despite the presence of Ekeler, who averages just 3.8 yards per carry. The Chargers also don’t spend a ton of time trying to establish the ground game, which should make life for New England’s front even easier.
When the Chargers pass – Edge: Chargers
Despite some impressive numbers for the Patriots defense in recent weeks, the secondary has not consistently been up to the task. Playing against backups in consecutive weeks, and in the Giants case a third-string undrafted rookie, opponents have found a number of open receivers. Tommy DeVito was not able to put enough strong plays together to put more points on the board, but fellow rookie Jalin Hyatt exploded for five catches for 109 yards after coming into the game with just 12 catches on the season. The Patriots secondary will need to be better working against Justin Herbert and Keenan Allen, who are as explosive a pair as there is in the league. Herbert is completing better than 66 percent of his throws with 20 touchdowns against just six interceptions, and Allen is far and away his favorite target. The veteran slot machine has 97 catches for 1,117 yards and seven touchdowns. The next closest receiver for the Chargers is Ekeler, who has 29 receptions. Losing Mike Williams to a torn ACL early in the season hurt, as has the loss of Josh Palmer and the slower than expected development of rookie Quentin Johnston. Johnston was also injured in the loss to the Ravens, so Herbert won’t have many options to choose from. He should have tight ends Gerald Everett and Donald Parham available, but the passing game is heavily reliant on Allen, and that combination generally is productive nonetheless.
Special Teams – Edge: Chargers
Things continue to spiral out of control for the Patriots special teams. The latest transgression was rookie Chad Ryland’s missed 35-yard field goal in the closing seconds that would have sent the game to overtime. It’s the second straight game that Ryland missed field goals that basically amounted to extra points. The Patriots also committed another unnecessary roughness penalty on special teams, and punt returner Demario Douglas fumbled twice, although was fortunate not to lose either. Aside from a recent uptick from rookie punter Bryce Baringer, not much has gone well in the so-called third phase for New England. The Chargers have gotten great work from kicker Cameron Dicker, who’s missed just one field goal in 18 attempts and is perfect on 30 PATs. Los Angeles also has Derius Davis, who averages 16.3 yards on punt returns including an 87-yard touchdown. He handles kickoffs as well but hasn’t had many opportunities in that department. The Patriots haven’t gotten much from their return game as Ty Montgomery continues to take at least one kick out of the end zone each game, only to be stopped short of the 25 and often times short of the 20. Overall, it’s been a very disappointing season on special teams.
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#Los #Angeles #Chargers #England #Patriots