Former Czech Foreign Minister Karel Schwarzenberg expects Russia to collapse as a result of the Ukraine war. “The decolonization process will continue in the Russian Federation. Russia will fall apart. Large parts will become independent as soon as they can,” Schwarzenberg told the “Presse am Sonntag”.
Since the 15th century, Russia has “constantly expanded,” Schwarzenberg emphasized. For the generation of Kremlin boss Vladimir Putin, the collapse of the Soviet Union was “the greatest catastrophe of the 20th century”, which he wanted to “repair”.
“The tragedy of Russia is that it doesn’t know its borders. Every imperial power must experience a major defeat before it can return to normal thinking.” In this regard, he compared Russia to Germany, which only “cured” from imperialism after defeat in World War II.
Ukraine “obviously” conceivable as an EU member
Schwarzenberg also used historical analogies to substantiate his support for Ukraine’s defensive struggle. “In the past there has always been this idea that the small nations should kindly sacrifice themselves for the larger ones. Whether that was in Munich in 1938 or in Yalta in 1945. But this way of thinking leads us again and again to catastrophes.”
“Of course” Schwarzenberg can imagine Ukraine as a member of the EU, but he “does not yet” believe in NATO membership for the ex-Soviet republic. On the other hand, he can imagine that in relation to Russia a “repeated scene after 1945” could arise. Just as Germany was “integrated into the West relatively quickly” back then, the West could also need the defeated Russians “as allies against China”.
ÖVP threatened by Kurz
While he does not expect ex-Prime Minister Andrej Babis to be elected President of the Czech Republic at the polls in January, he sees the existence of the Austrian chancellor party ÖVP in jeopardy. Sebastian Kurz’s time was “a catastrophe for Austria”. “I’m curious if the ÖVP will recover from him. I already said back then. If Sebastian Kurz ends as I expect, that could also be the end of the ÖVP.”