Economic and Business Research Center The Siam Commercial Bank (SCBEIC) said that from March, Thai exports grew 19.5 percent at US$ 28,859 million. Which is considered the highest value in the history in 30 years, if the gold products are deducted (This is a product that does not reflect real trade conditions) export value will expand by 9.5%, which has begun to show signs of a slowdown from the previous month. This was in line with the Global Manufacturing PMI and Export Orders Index, which dropped to the lowest in 18 months and 20 months, respectively, reflecting a slowdown in Manufacturing and world trade in the future
In this regard, Thai exports in March 65 There are exports that are the main backers besides gold, such as computers, gems and jewelry. Fats and oils from plants and animals, sugar, etc. There are important markets that have expanded well, namely ASEAN-5, India and the Middle East. Thai exports began to suffer from a slowdown in demand. Including the problem of disruption of global supply from the war between Russia and Ukraine. by exporting Thailand to Russia in March contracted 73% and exports to Ukraine contracted 77.8%. Russia and Ukraine are still considered small export markets of Thailand, accounting for only 0.43% of total exports (2021 data). Thai trade is still quite limited. while exporting to Europe which is an important export market of Thailand with a share of 9.3%, still expanding well despite a slowdown of 8%
In addition, China’s implementation of strict disease control measures which is a key player in the global supply chain Although the impact on Thai exports has been limited in the past, EIC expects Thai exports to be more affected in the next period. If China continues to implement strict disease control measures. including the impact of the slowdown in the Chinese economy
The EIC has revised up Thailand’s export forecast in 2022 to 6.1% from 3.4% (the figure in the balance of payments system), but the expansion was driven by higher prices driven by costs. especially in the energy category. and more than the increase in quantity. However, although the global economy tends to slow down from the effects of the war As a result, the volume of Thai exports may expand at a slower rate in the future. But the price of Thai export products tends to increase. According to higher prices of commodities around the world. especially energy products from the effects of the Russo-Ukrainian War This is because Russia and Ukraine are important exporters of many commodities.
In addition, the depreciation of the baht will be a factor supporting the income of Thai exporters. and may increase competitiveness which since the beginning of the war It was found that the baht depreciated more than most regional currencies.
“EIC expects the baht in the short term. will face pressure from lower demand for risky assets The current account balance has a tendency to increase deficit. and raising interest rates in many key economies around the world before returning to appreciate in the second half of the year during this transition The Thai export sector will therefore benefit from price competitiveness in order to increase market share. which will translate into increased income for Thai export businesses.”
