Totally decoupled. The Santiago Stock Exchange closed higher this Friday, completely away from the pessimism that reigned on Wall Street; this, given the position taken by investors in the face of Sunday’s plebiscite.
The local market ended the session with a strong jump, gaining 4.53% compared to Thursday’s close, and broke the streak of two consecutive days in negative territory.
This increase is the largest of the selective since last November 22, when it rose 9.69% after the first presidential round led by José Antonio Kast and seconded by the current President Gabriel Boric. In turn, that daily increase had been the maximum since the crisis subprimein October 2008.
In addition, it was the Stock Market that recorded the highest rise in the world measured in dollars on Friday, with an increase of 5.91%.
So far this year, the Chilean stock market is the fourth place that has climbed the most in the world in dollars, 31.21%.
“The IPSA -which closed at 5,653.2 points- picked up the initial inertia of the international markets, which finally changed their downward trend,” said Renta4’s research manager, Guillermo Araya, before the sudden jump in the Stock Exchange. Santiago.
In addition, the IPSA closed the balance of the last days with a gain of 3.52% and recorded its second week in a row in positive territory, in which it added 6.83%.
In its latest Market Vision report, Santander explained that “local assets have shown strong variations during the week, closing with limited gains and with a clear decoupling from international markets that ended lower. Although part of the volatility is due to the different views on the results of the plebiscite of the constitutional proposal, the weak economic data also affected the valuations”.
Luis Flores, general manager of STF Capital, points out that when looking at the leading actions of the IPSA, there are those linked to mining, retail, construction, banks and utilities, “that is, here there is a prize for Chile through the capital market, which reinforces our position that asset prices discount a victory for the Rejection option, and that this victory is more limited than what the polls discount. , which suggests consensus in the future. This should be reflected in slower and shallower changes, keeping the Chilean socio-economic model alive”.
Germán Guerrero, a partner at MBI, maintains that investors have experienced days of euphoria, with “some betting on the victory of Rejection.”
Along these lines, he explains that “since there are no longer any relevant events and a deadline for what the surveys say to be reversed, if they are correct, the market has been anticipating that scenario.”
“If the Rejection wins, it will go up another 5%, but if the Approval wins, it will fall between 10% and 15%,” says Guerrero.
Beyond what happens on Sunday, the selective has room to go up. In its latest report, Banchile Inversiones points out that “within a context of uncertainty, this time not only local, but also global, (the Stock Exchange) maintains an attractive discount despite the outstanding performance of this year.”
For this reason, says the bank in its Weekly Look study this Friday, “our target IPSA represents a return of 18% and is consistent with a 12-month price/earnings valuation multiple of 10 times, well below the average of 14 .5 times in the last 10 years”.
But while the local market jumped, in the US fears about the complex economic scenario worsened.
Wall Street opened sharply higher after the August farm payrolls report showed stronger-than-expected hiring, but a rise in the unemployment rate to 3.7% eased some concerns that the Fed is being too aggressively raising interest rates in an attempt to reduce high inflation.
However, the profits vanished after Gazprom, the state-controlled company with a monopoly on Russian gas exports to Europe via a pipeline that was due to resume operations on Saturday, said it could not resume deliveries. safely until it had repaired an oil leak found in a turbine, and did not give a new schedule.
Specifically, the S&P 500 lost 1.07%, while the Nasdaq Composite dropped 1.31% and the Dow Jones industrial average fell 1.03%.
Energy was the only major S&P sector to end the session in positive territory.
In the week, according to the provisional closing data, the S&P 500 lost 3.29%, the Dow Jones, 2.99%, and the Nasdaq fell 4.21%. All three indicators recorded their third consecutive week down.