In a significant escalation of the ongoing conflict, the United States has confirmed that Russia launched a never-before-deployed intermediate-range ballistic missile on Thursday as part of its military offensive against Ukraine, raising concerns about the implications for European missile defense systems.
Here’s what we know so far about the missile that has now entered the global discourse.
What kind of ballistic missile is it?
According to the US military, the design of the missile indicates it is based on the structure of Russia’s longer-range RS-26 Rubezh intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), a troubling revelation for analysts monitoring the evolving capabilities of the Russian arsenal.
Officials have assessed that the missile is experimental in nature, with Russia likely having only a limited number of these advanced weapons in its possession at this time.
The Pentagon confirmed that the missile was equipped with a conventional warhead in this instance, yet emphasized that Moscow retains the capability to modify it for more lethal payloads if it so chooses.
“It could be refitted to certainly carry different types of conventional or nuclear warheads,” Pentagon spokesperson Sabrina Singh elaborated, indicating the potential for a more dangerous escalation in the future.
Jeffrey Lewis, a respected non-proliferation expert at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies in California, explained that President Vladimir Putin previously hinted at the development of an intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM) system, especially following agreements made by Washington and Berlin to station long-range US missiles in Germany from 2026.
“The RS-26 was always [a] prime candidate,” Lewis asserted, pointing to its significance in Russia’s strategic planning.
Singh designated the newly observed variant as “experimental” from the Pentagon’s perspective, noting, “It’s the first time that we’ve seen it employed on the battlefield … So that’s why we consider it experimental.”
Sources from the US and UK have indicated that the missile utilized in the attack on Dnipro is believed to be an experimental nuclear-capable intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM), boasting a theoretical range of less than 3,420 miles (5,500 km). This range is sufficient to reach various parts of Europe from its launch point in southwestern Russia; however, it does not extend to the United States itself.
Ukraine’s air force initially identified the missile as an ICBM, presenting a more alarming picture, but the actual launch of an IRBM may serve as a less provocative signal. Nonetheless, this incident has raised significant alarms, compounded by the fact that Moscow provided brief notification to Washington ahead of the missile’s launch, as confirmed by US officials.
Will Russia’s missile strike affect NATO?
Timothy Wright, a defense expert at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, remarked that Russia’s advancements in missile technology might shape the strategic choices made by NATO countries regarding the acquisition of air defense systems and the selection of offensive capabilities necessary for countering diverse threats.
Notably, a new US ballistic missile defense base situated in northern Poland has already incited strong reactions from Moscow, further escalating tensions in the region.
The Redzikowo base is an integral component of a larger NATO missile shield designed to neutralize short- to intermediate-range ballistic missiles; its establishment is viewed as a direct challenge by the Kremlin.
Despite the provocative nature of the IRBM launch, Putin categorically stated that this recent action was not a retaliatory maneuver against the US base in Poland. Instead, he framed it as a response to recent long-range strikes conducted by Ukraine within Russian territory using Western-supplied weapons systems.
Following authorization from President Joe Biden’s administration, Ukraine executed strikes against Russia utilizing US-made Atacms on 19 November and British Storm Shadow missiles alongside US-produced Himars on 21 November, according to statements made by Putin.
What has Vladimir Putin said about the new missile?
In a televised address to the nation, President Putin acknowledged that Russia had targeted a Ukrainian military facility with this new ballistic missile, revealing it under the name “Oreshnik” (the hazel), thereby formally publicizing its introduction to the battlefield.
He articulated that its deployment was a countermeasure against US initiatives aimed at producing and placing intermediate and short-range missiles in Europe, asserting that Russia would “respond decisively and symmetrically” should any further escalation occur.
Reports indicate that Moscow specifically targeted a missile and defense manufacturing facility in Dnipro, significant for its association with the Ukrainian missile and space rocket company Pivdenmash, recognized by Russians as Yuzhmash.
Putin further asserted that Russia is committed to developing short- and medium-range missiles as a strategic response to the expected US production and subsequent deployment of missiles with similar ranges in both Europe and Asia.
“I believe that the United States made a mistake by unilaterally destroying the treaty on the elimination of intermediate-range and shorter-range missiles in 2019 under a far-fetched pretext,” stated the Russian president, referencing the contentious intermediate-range nuclear forces (INF) treaty.
The United States officially terminated its participation in the 1987 INF treaty with Russia in 2019, citing allegations of Moscow’s violations, a claim that has been categorically denied by Kremlin officials.
How does the recent deployment of Russia’s intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM) impact NATO’s defense strategies in Eastern Europe?
**Interview with Dr. Emily Carter, Defense Analyst and International Relations Expert**
**Host:** Welcome, Dr. Carter. Thank you for joining us today to discuss the recent developments regarding Russia’s missile capabilities and the implications for European security.
**Dr. Carter:** Thank you for having me. It’s certainly an important and concerning topic.
**Host:** To start, can you explain the significance of Russia deploying an experimental intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM) against Ukraine?
**Dr. Carter:** Absolutely. This missile, which the US military has linked to Russia’s RS-26 Rubezh ICBM design, represents a notable escalation in the conflict. Its deployment indicates that Russia is advancing its military capabilities and sending a message of deterrence, particularly as NATO continues to enhance its military presence in Eastern Europe. The fact that this missile can reach parts of Europe but not the US raises alarms about European security dynamics.
**Host:** What do you think are the implications for NATO following the IRBM launch?
**Dr. Carter:** NATO countries will likely reassess their air defense strategies and offensive capabilities in light of this development. The missile’s capabilities could prompt NATO members to bolster their defenses, particularly in Poland and the Baltic states, to deter any potential threats from Russia. Additionally, the establishment of missile defense systems in these regions has already heightened tensions, and Russia’s response could escalate further.
**Host:** The Pentagon noted that this missile can be fitted with either conventional or nuclear warheads. How does this dual capability affect the strategic landscape?
**Dr. Carter:** The dual capability complicates the strategic environment significantly. While this particular launch employed a conventional warhead, the potential for nuclear specifications gives Russia a flexible response strategy. It means they can adjust their military posture based on the operational context. The ability to threaten with nuclear capabilities could deter NATO responses or influence tactical decisions made in the field.
**Host:** In his statements, Putin suggested that the missile launch is a response to Ukrainian strikes on Russian territory. How do you see such narratives affecting international relations?
**Dr. Carter:** Putin’s framing of the missile launch as a reaction to Ukraine’s offensive, especially using Western-made systems, is a clear attempt to justify Russia’s actions on the world stage. This narrative could rally domestic support while simultaneously sowing distrust among Western nations regarding the extent of military aid to Ukraine. It underscores the spiral of escalation we see in this conflict—each action leads to potential counteractions that can exacerbate tensions.
**Host:** with the evolving missile landscape, what are the potential next steps for both Russia and NATO?
**Dr. Carter:** I believe we will see an increase in military exercises and deployments from NATO, along with further military support for Ukraine. For Russia, ramping up missile technology and potentially conducting further tests could be on the table as they seek to establish themselves as a dominant military power in the region. The key will be finding a balance between deterrence and avoiding outright conflict, which is a challenge for both sides.
**Host:** Thank you, Dr. Carter, for your insights into this critical situation.
**Dr. Carter:** Thank you for having me. It’s vital we continue to monitor these developments closely.