On March 22, 151 Russian missiles and drones were targeted at the DTEK thermal power plant, the Ukrenergo substation, and the Ukrhydroenergo hydroelectric plant.
The Ukrainian energy system has survived, and the blackout that the Russians tried to create is far away, says Oleksandr Kharchenko, director of the Energy Research Center. Why was Russia unable to achieve the goal, might the Russians destroy the DniproHPP dam when the energy supply is restored, is the attack connected to strikes on Russian refineries, and will such attacks continue?
Kharchenko’s blitz interview has been shortened and edited for clarity.
What is the purpose of the attacks? Why now, and not in winter, when electricity consumption is maximum?
It was the largest and most sophisticated attack on energy during the entire war. The targets were dozens of energy facilities – almost all generation, except nuclear, and the most important substations. But in fact, much less was affected, thanks to air defense and physical protection. Much valuable equipment survived.
The scale of the operation required a lot of time for preparation. They stockpiled missiles and drones, analyzed last year’s attacks, gathered information regarding the current state of the power system and the level of protection that had been built during that time. The consequences would have been worse if the attack had taken place in winter at sub-zero temperatures. Why didn’t this happen then? Apparently, they did not have time to prepare.
Could this attack be a response to strikes on Russian refineries?
The preparation for this operation took much longer – it took months. Not much time has passed since the massive attacks on the refinery. In the informational plane, they will try to present it as an answer. But this is definitely not true.
Oleksandr Kharchenko: It was the largest and most sophisticated attack on energy during the entire war.
What makes you conclude that this attack was the most premeditated?
Not only military personnel were involved in the planning of this operation, but also intelligence and Russian energy experts. Given the nature of the attack, they knew well where and what kind of defense we had built and tried to bypass it. Strategic planning was precisely done by the energy industry, taking into account what targets they were trying to hit.
Simultaneously with the missile attack, there was a cyber attack on the energy infrastructure, which was repelled. They also conducted an information campaign through mass media and Telegram channels. For example, they tried to dispel panic that the Dnipro HPP will now collapse and flood everything. This is absolute absurdity. It is almost impossible to destroy the HPP dam with rockets.
They used all possible tools at the same time to cause as much damage as possible.
How did Ukraine cope?
Blackout was Russia’s goal. It is not there, and it is far from it. The system stood up, it kept controllability. We will receive emergency imports from EU countries, which will further strengthen us.
Yes, there are emergency shutdowns in the regions that were the main focus of the attacks. A very difficult situation in Kharkiv, Odesa. There are also outages in Poltava Oblast, Kirovohrad Oblast, and Sumy Oblast.
But immediately following the attack, work began to restore the power supply.
How long will it take to restore power?
By the end of the day, most customers will have power restored. The rest will be connected within a day, a maximum of one and a half hours.
Last winter, Russia tried to divide the Ukrainian energy system into parts. Has the tactic changed?
They tried to do the same – to divide the left and right banks and separate the southern regions. They also tried to single out regions important for the power system. That is, for the region where there is generation to lose connection with the region where there is a lot of consumption. But they did not succeed.
You said that it is impossible to destroy the Dnipro HPP dam with rockets. Why did they hit her then?
It was probably a slip. With one of the hits, they damaged the mashzal. But they probably aimed at distribution devices. This attack was primarily focused on switchgear, substations and thermal power units. The dam was hardly the target.
Kharchenko: it is impossible to destroy the Dnipro HPP dam with rockets.
What are the consequences for the energy system if the work of DniproHES cannot be quickly restored?
Loss of maneuvering power during floods is unpleasant. Now the HPP might generate a lot. A negative impact on the irrigation of the southern regions is also possible. But it is not critical for the power system.
Will attacks on the power system continue in the coming months?
Will probably continue. As long as the Russian Federation has missiles, they will shoot with them. Therefore, the publication of the FT with reference to American officials, who ask Ukraine not to hit Russian refineries, looks extremely absurd.
It is important for us to speed up work on making the Ukrainian energy system more decentralized. A relatively small 100 MW gas plant in Odesa or Kharkiv would make it possible to limit the scale of outages.
The FT’s publication strangely coincided with this attack.
These are all pieces of the puzzle. On the one hand, the Russian Federation is trying to intimidate the West with escalation and rising prices, and on the other hand, it is conducting the largest missile attack. But this only indicates that the strikes on the refinery are very painful for them, and they are afraid of continuation.
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