2024-01-04 11:39:03
Paris (AFP) – The recent heavy Russian strikes on major Ukrainian cities, according to experts, aim to exhaust the population and air defense systems in Ukraine, which has once again requested additional weapons from its Western allies.
Published on: 04/01/2024 – 12:39 Last updated: 04/01/2024 – 12:37
5 minutes
According to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, Russia launched about 300 missiles and more than 200 Iranian-made Shahed drones, in two separate attacks, the first on December 29 and the second on Monday night, resulting in the deaths of about fifty people.
A year after Moscow’s intense aerial bombardment of Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, the latest Russian strikes targeted key civilian facilities and residential neighborhoods in the midst of winter, according to Kiev. As usual, Moscow stresses that it only targets military targets.
Mick Ryan, a researcher at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), said that one of the Kremlin’s first goals is to “test” the air defense systems, the power of which has been enhanced thanks to the American Patriot system and the French-Italian SAM/T Mamba system.
This retired Australian general wrote on the X platform that Moscow is seeking to start a race against time in the hope that “Ukraine will run out of interceptor missiles before Russia runs out of missiles and drones.”
In this context, General Sergey Naev, commander of the Ukrainian Joint Forces, said in an interview with Agence France-Presse on Wednesday, “In the near term, with regard to mobile air defense systems, the ammunition (…) is sufficient to confront the upcoming powerful attacks.”
He added, “But in the medium and long term, we definitely need the help of Western countries to replenish missile stocks.”
The defense industry is targeted
Russia has moved to a war economy, while the West struggles to provide the necessary quantity of surface-to-air anti-aircraft missiles, which are more complex and expensive to manufacture than some drones made partly with civilian equipment.
The British Ministry of Defense considered that the main target of the Russian strikes was the “defense industry” that Kiev is trying to strengthen in the face of the decline in Western arms shipments.
Military analyst Mykola Bilyeskov explained to Agence France-Presse that the Russians “are now trying to attack the military industrial sector and its companies, not energy infrastructure (unlike last winter), but the arms production industry.”
Sergey Zgorets, director of the Ukrainian Defense Express research center, told AFP, “We have begun producing weapons in larger quantities than before,” talking about ammunition, drones, armored vehicles, and radars.
In order to hit these targets, “the organization and diversification of Russian projectiles has changed to become more complex,” according to what the French advisor on international risks, Stephane Audran, explained to Agence France-Presse.
The Supreme Commander of the Ukrainian Army enumerated on Telegram the range of projectiles used by the Russians during the attack they carried out on Monday night: modern drones and cruise missiles, old missiles, and ballistic missiles.
Ukraine also confirms that it shot down 10 Kinzhal hypersonic missiles used in that attack, although the Kremlin presents them as “invincible.”
Psychological pressure
The Russian strikes also aim to destroy the morale of Ukrainians, as has been happening since the beginning of the war in February 2022.
Tatiana Castueva-Jean of the French Institute of International Relations said, “The victories that Russia declares in the field are achieved at a high human cost. Therefore, (Russian President Vladimir) Putin is again trying to use this other means of pressure… His message is: I will not surrender, I am ready for everything.” “One thing, you will constantly suffer and die if you do not comply with my conditions.”
She added to Agence France-Presse that the Russian President is also addressing the West to tell it that “the support provided to Ukraine only leads to prolonging the suffering of the population and making Ukraine a financial burden as the high-cost infrastructure may be bombed again and again.”
Tatiana Stanovaya, founder of the R. Politek, which specializes in analyzing Russian politics, said that these attacks have a retaliatory dimension.
She explained that after the Ukrainian strikes on Belgorod, Russia, which left 25 people dead on December 30, Vladimir Putin sent the following message: “Ukraine cannot attack us without bearing the consequences.”
In the face of this Russian campaign, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba asked the West to accelerate the delivery to his country of “additional air defense systems, drones” and “missiles with a range of more than 300 kilometers.”
This is a message echoed by Poland, which called on Wednesday to provide Ukraine with long-range missiles to respond to Russian attacks.
Kiev is also waiting for F-16 fighter jets promised by several European countries that can participate in air defense via air-to-air missiles.
Also, NATO announced Thursday that representatives of the military alliance and Ukraine will hold a special meeting next week to discuss accelerating the delivery of air defense systems to Kiev after the escalation of Russian strikes.
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