2024-03-18 13:36:00
The President threatened a cordon because of attacks on Belgorod. 47news found out how far we will have to go.
Press Secretary of the Russian President Dmitry Peskov on March 18 broadcast Vladimir Putin’s statement about the “sanitary zone” in Ukraine. According to him, against the backdrop of drone attacks and shelling, it is necessary to create a buffer – a safe corridor. The day before, at the election headquartersVladimir Putin reasoned more broadly.
“…I do not rule out that, bearing in mind the tragic events taking place today, we will be forced at some point – when we consider it appropriate – to create a certain “sanitary zone” in today’s territories subordinate to the Kiev regime. Create a security zone, overcome which will be quite difficult, using the weapons that the enemy uses, primarily, of course, foreign-made,” the agency quoted TASS.
47news asked military experts about the scale and organization of such work. From their assumptions it turns out that there are few options.
– As I understand, we are talking about a zone that will reduce the intensity and effectiveness of shelling in the border regions: Bryansk, Kursk and Belgorod regions. The capital of the latter is located just 30 kilometers from settlements controlled by Ukraine, notes military expert, senior researcher at the Higher School of Economics Vasily Kashin. “We are talking not only about stopping attacks using kamikaze drones, but also cannon artillery, rockets and shells from multiple launch rocket systems based on a modified Grad – the Vampire MLRS.
Shells from this Czech system have been used since the end of last year during shelling of Belgorod and take the lives of civilians, including children. The capital of the region as a whole is under shelling every day, intensity increased on the eve of the presidential elections. Just this morning during another strike two men died.
– A strip of 40-50 kilometers will be sufficient. In this way, 122-mm MLRS and most of the cannon artillery are eliminated, that is, the number of types of weapons used is reduced, adds Kashin.
47news carefully calculated: from the north you need to stop at least in the suburbs of Kharkov. On the approach to it there are dozens of small settlements. To protect the Kherson region, it will be necessary to move the contact line 50 kilometers closer to Nikolaev.
“Something will break through the air defense and missile defense systems, but not in such volumes as now,” says one of the interlocutors.
Another military expert founder of the MilitaryRussia portal Dmitry Kornev thinks more comprehensively.
– Depends on the goals that are being achieved. If you stop the shelling of ancestral Russian territory with the help of FPV drones (“kamikazes”), then the cordon needs to be set at five, with a large margin – 10 kilometers further. The simplest multiple launch rocket systems are to be moved 20-25 kilometers, then they will not reach Belgorod. Himars are 70-80 kilometers from the border with conventional missiles, and in the future the Ukrainian Armed Forces promise to transfer a modification of ATACMS with a range of up to 300 kilometers,” explains the expert.
As for the organization of the zone itself, experts interviewed by 47news are confident that we will not be talking about agreements between diplomats or negotiators at different levels. The tactics will be to liberate the territory from enemy forces.
– Will it be necessary to increase the size of the armed forces? – we asked Vasily Kashin.
– I don’t think, in fact, the maneuvers will not lead to an extension of the front line. There may be several options: from the collapse of the Ukrainian defense and a radical change in the situation at the front to a broad and rapid offensive by the Russian army. So far we have not seen such a pace. Therefore, the statement about the sanitary zone is, for now, rather used as a threat. However, it is possible that it will become one of the accompanying goals of the SVO.
– In the event of an offensive, how high is the risk of running into the defense lines, which the Ukrainian Armed Forces are building in threes in different directions?
– These fortifications still need to be filled with troops, and they are now having problems with recruitment. In any case, it is difficult to predict a rapid advance tens of kilometers deep into Ukraine.
The head of the DPR, Denis Pushilin, said on federal TV that for his region he sees the border of the sanitary zone on the territory of the Dnepropetrovsk region. From there to Donetsk is 240 kilometers, and the range of current weapons will not be enough.
– It is impossible to defend against all types of weapons. Otherwise, it is necessary to establish a cordon border on the banks of the Dnieper River or turn the whole of Ukraine into one sanitary zone. This measure is unlikely to be required for Himars with ATACMS: firstly, there are much fewer such shells, and the shots are too expensive. They cannot be used for daily shelling in the city center. The missiles are larger, and therefore much more vulnerable, that is, more visible to Russian air defense systems,” argues Vasily Kashin from the Higher School of Economics in absentia.
The interlocutor added that the practice of 50-kilometer withdrawal of heavy equipment was already used during the Ukrainian crisis. The Minsk agreements provided for the rollback of heavy artillery to this distance, and the Tornado-S multiple launch rocket systems to 140 kilometers. The implementation was monitored by OSCE observers who were caught sympathizing with Ukraine. Finding an international organization that will undertake monitoring will be difficult in the current geopolitical conditions, the expert noted.
Let us note that this is not the first time that the Russian President has mentioned the term “sanitary zone.” In June last year, after a series of drone attacks on the capital, similar plans were announced. Press Secretary Peskov explained thenthat “Moscow will have to push Kyiv’s military infrastructure to a safe distance.”
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