Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 15, 2024
Grace Mappes, Davit Gasparyan, Karolina Hird, Angelica Evans, Olivia Gibson, Nate Trotter, William Runkel, and George Barros
November 15, 2024, 7:00pm ET
Click here to see ISW’s interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, updated daily to reflect the latest developments and static maps present in this report.
Click here to view ISW’s advanced 3D terrain topographic map of Ukraine. It is recommended to use a computer for optimal navigation of this extensive, data-heavy tool.
Click here to access ISW’s comprehensive archive of interactive time-lapse maps showcasing the progress of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Updated monthly, these maps offer insights into the shifting frontlines, complementing the daily static control-of-terrain maps.
Note: The data cut-off for this product was 12:30pm ET on November 15. ISW will cover subsequent reports in the November 16 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment.
The Kremlin is intensifying its reflexive control campaign aimed at swaying Western decision-makers in favor of Russia as talks loom regarding the prospective resolution of the ongoing war in Ukraine. On November 15, Russian President Vladimir Putin engaged in a phone conversation with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, during which he reiterated key Kremlin information operations designed to manipulate not only the German government but also other Western states into pressuring Ukraine for early peace talks while withholding further military support. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky characterized the Scholz-Putin dialogue as a “Pandora’s box,” expressing concerns that it serves Putin’s primary objectives: diminishing Russia’s isolation on the global stage and fostering negotiations on terms heavily beneficial to him, which “will lead to nothing.”
Senior Russian officials have ramped up their rhetoric aimed at influencing the foreign policy of the incoming U.S. administration under President-elect Donald Trump, boldly reiterating the Kremlin’s unwillingness to yield on terms for any future negotiations, while signaling that the long-standing goal of total Ukrainian capitulation remains intact. The Kremlin likely seeks to exploit uncertainties surrounding future U.S. policy on Ukraine by amplifying its reflexive control initiatives targeting Ukraine’s European allies. Notably, key Russian figures, including Security Council Secretary Sergei Shoigu and Defense Minister Andrei Belousov, have leveraged phone calls with Western political and military officials to propagate Kremlin narratives, exerting pressure on the West to concede prematurely on matters of Ukrainian sovereignty and territorial integrity since the war’s onset in 2022.
On November 15, Abkhazian oppositionists took to the streets to protest an agreement between the de facto government of Georgia’s Abkhazia region and Russia that seeks to enhance the rights of Russian investors. Protesters stormed the de facto parliament in this Kremlin-backed separatist region, vocally opposing a proposed investment deal with Russia, which aims to allow Russian legal entities property ownership and preferential tax exemptions in Abkhazia. Critics of the legislative proposal argued that it could significantly inflate property values, fortify the oligarchic class, and undermine Abkhazia’s aspirations for autonomy. Although many demonstrators waved Russian flags, they clarified that their disgruntlement was directed not at “fraternal” Russia but at the ruling Abkhaz government, asserting a need to safeguard Abkhazia’s “national interests.” Calls for the resignation of the current de facto Abkhazian President Aslan Bzhania resonated throughout the protests. This civil unrest compelled the Abkhazian parliament to postpone voting on the contentious agreement, with opposition leaders indicating their intentions to present their demands to the existing leadership.
Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) Spokesperson Maria Zakharova advised Russians to refrain from traveling to Abkhazia, citing escalating safety concerns and warning that the ongoing crisis could deter future economic investments in the region. Reactions in the Russian information space included characterizations of the protesters as ungrateful, with some online bloggers attributing the unrest to external influences such as Turkey, while others acknowledged that Abkhazia’s economy is heavily reliant on Russia.
Meanwhile, Ukraine’s Western partners persist in providing substantial military support through a variety of channels. On November 14, French Armed Forces Minister Sébastien Lecornu announced that the Ukrainian “Anna Kyivska” Brigade has successfully completed its training in France, marking it as the first Ukrainian brigade to undergo such training and equipping as part of the European Union Military Assistance Mission (EUMAM). Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov highlighted that France has supplied both general and specialized military training, alongside state-of-the-art equipment and weaponry including armored personnel carriers (APCs), self-propelled artillery systems, and advanced situational awareness technologies.
On November 15, Umerov met with Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Ghar Støre and Norwegian Defense Minister Björn Arild Gram in Oslo, where Norway announced its commitment to joining the “Danish format” initiative, aimed at enhancing support for Ukraine by funding the domestic production of military weapons and equipment. Discussions also touched upon the establishment of a “Norwegian format” intended to secure external investment for Ukrainian defense tech companies.
In a press briefing on November 15, U.S. Deputy Pentagon Press Secretary Sabrina Singh reaffirmed America’s commitment to disbursing approximately $7.1 billion in Presidential Drawdown Authority (PDA) assistance to Ukraine prior to the inauguration of President-elect Donald Trump in January 2025. Singh emphasized the Pentagon’s intention to send military aid packages to Ukraine on an “almost weekly” basis leading up to the inauguration.
Key Takeaways:
- The Kremlin is intensifying its reflexive control campaign aimed at influencing Western decision-making in Russia’s favor ahead of or in lieu of possible future negotiations about the resolution of the war in Ukraine.
- Abkhazian oppositionists protested an agreement between the de facto government of Georgia’s Abkhazia region with Russia aimed at enhancing Russian investors’ rights in Abkhazia on November 15.
- Ukraine’s Western partners continue to provide Ukraine with military support via various means and platforms.
- Ukrainian forces recently advanced in Kursk Oblast and near Kurakhove, while Russian forces made advances near Kupyansk, Toretsk, Pokrovsk, Kurakhove, and Vuhledar.
- The Kremlin continues efforts to expand its “Time of Heroes” program to create a new social class composed of veterans loyal to President Vladimir Putin and his regime.
While we do not report in detail on Russian war crimes due to extensive coverage by Western media, we consistently assess and report on their impact on military operations and the Ukrainian populace, especially in urban areas. We categorically condemn violations of armed conflict laws and human rights abuses, even though they are not explicitly detailed in these reports.
- Ukrainian Operations in the Russian Federation
- Russian Main Effort – Eastern Ukraine (comprised of three subordinate main efforts)
- Russian Subordinate Main Effort #1 – Push Ukrainian forces back from the international border with Belgorod Oblast and approach within artillery range of Kharkiv City
- Russian Subordinate Main Effort #2 – Capture the remainder of Luhansk Oblast and push westward into eastern Kharkiv Oblast, encircling northern Donetsk Oblast
- Russian Subordinate Main Effort #3 – Capture the entirety of Donetsk Oblast
- Russian Supporting Effort – Southern Axis
- Russian Air, Missile, and Drone Campaign
- Russian Mobilization and Force Generation Efforts
- Russian Technological Adaptations
- Activities in Russian-occupied areas
- Significant Activity in Belarus
Ukrainian Operations in the Russian Federation
Ukrainian forces recently advanced southeast of Korenevo amid continued fighting along a key Ukrainian salient in Kursk Oblast on November 15. Footage confirmed that Ukrainian forces made slight advances within eastern Novoivanovka, located southeast of Korenevo. A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces made progress in nearby forests around Malaya Loknya, Martynovka, and Olgovka, with inclement weather reportedly hampering operations for both sides in the region. Concurrently, Russian forces intensified attacks along the main Ukrainian salient in Kursk Oblast, particularly near Darino, throughout November 14 and 15, with elements of the Russian 51st Airborne Regiment reportedly active in the region.
Ukrainian forces conducted a strike targeting the Krymsky Airfield in Krasnodar Krai during the night of November 14-15, though the extent of the damage remains unclear. Footage indicated significant explosive activity near Krymsk Airbase, which is known to serve the Russian 3rd Combined Aviation Regiment. Authorities in Krasnodar Krai asserted that Russian forces successfully intercepted numerous Ukrainian drones, while also alleging some drones had caused damage to residential sectors in the region. Notably, a Russian milblogger labeled this strike the most significant Ukrainian action against Krasnodar Krai since the escalation of the conflict.
Russian Main Effort – Eastern Ukraine
Russian Subordinate Main Effort #1 – Kharkiv Oblast (Russian objective: Push Ukrainian forces back from the international border with Belgorod Oblast and approach within artillery range of Kharkiv City)
A possible Russian sabotage and reconnaissance element conducted a limited border incursion into Chernihiv Oblast on November 15, although indications do not suggest an enduring Russian presence was established in the area. Footage from the incident captured Russian soldiers placing a flag on a damaged bridge connecting Hremyach and Kolos, approximately 1.5 kilometers south of the international boundary, before withdrawing. Despite rampant online claims of Russian advances into additional locations, ISW has found insufficient evidence to support these assertions, and Ukrainian officials have clarified that any Russian troops deployed were temporary. The deputy spokesperson from the Ukrainian State Border Service indicated that the nature of the operation was fleeting, and urged that all claims of Russian territorial gains were part of an information operation.
Meanwhile, Russian forces launched limited offensive maneuvers in northern Kharkiv Oblast without making significant progress. Attacks occurred north of Kharkiv City, targeting Vysoka Yaruha, Lyptsi, and Hlyboke. Reports indicated that worsened weather conditions resulted in Russian forces lacking the mobilization of substantial mechanized equipment at the frontline. Nonetheless, small infantry assaults with sporadic vehicle support persist as Russian forces endeavor to regain artillery positions capable of shelling Kharkiv City and re-establishing vital supply routes. Ukrainian spokespersons reported that small Russian groups began to conduct attacks with limited armored support around mid-November, indicative of shifting tactics.
Russian Subordinate Main Effort #2 – Luhansk Oblast (Russian objective: Capture the remainder of Luhansk Oblast and push westward into eastern Kharkiv Oblast and northern Donetsk Oblast)
Advancements were observed from Russian forces into Kupyansk as they continued offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line on November 14 and 15. Footage confirmed that Russian forces progressed to Dzerzhynskoho Street in eastern Kupyansk. Russian sources claimed to have established footholds on the city’s outskirts, indicating the intent to create logistics infrastructures for subsequent military maneuvers. In the Kupyansk direction, military representatives reported the increasingly challenging conditions as small Russian units infiltrated behind Ukrainian defensive lines, further complicating the situation for defending forces.
Continuing their efforts, Russian forces reported ongoing attacks across various positions along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna front, further bolstering their positions but without achieving definitive breakthroughs. Claims of advancing troops near Karmazynivka and control over strategic territories continued to circulate online, although verification remains pending from ISW.
Russian Subordinate Main Effort #3 – Donetsk Oblast (Russian objective: Capture the entirety of Donetsk Oblast, the claimed territory of Russia’s proxies in Donbas)
Offensive operations east of Siversk near Verkhnokamyanske persisted on November 14 and 15 without achieving further territorial gains. Elements from the Russian 2nd Artillery Brigade were reportedly involved in these operations, signifying continued efforts to apply pressure in the region amidst stagnating advances.
A similar situation transpired south of Chasiv Yar near Predtechyne where Russian infantry remained engaged without marked advancements. Ukrainian spokespeople indicated that Russian forces are employing tactical measures aimed at evading detection by drones, deploying specific materials to disguise their movements. Despite limited territorial gains, sustained engagements indicate an ongoing intent to apply pressure on Ukrainian defenses.
Intense fighting within Toretsk on November 15 saw Russian forces advancing incrementally. Reports indicate that Russian military elements mounted sustained operations around various locations in the area, with losses inflicted on Russian troops owing to Ukrainian defenses. Elements of implicated Russian brigades continue to remain active and engaged.
Advancements amidst continued fighting were also observed south of Pokrovsk as skirmishes persisted along multiple fronts. Geolocated footage confirms Russian forces claiming marginal gains in northern Yurivka amidst ongoing assaults in surrounding areas.
Geolocated footage confirms minor advancements in the Kurakhove region, with both Ukrainian and Russian forces participating in engagements around the locality. Reporting indicates that Russian forces continue their assault with varying degrees of success in the face of determined Ukrainian resistance.
Russian forces have escalated operations in the Vuhledar region. Enhancements in territorial control were noted, although ongoing engagements hindered substantial changes to frontline positions. Various tactical units are reportedly contributing to these operations amid sustained confrontations across a broad spectrum.
Russian forces maintained offensive efforts along the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area but did not successfully alter their advance status. Claims of achieved positioning near Novodarivka lack independent confirmation.
Russian Supporting Effort – Southern Axis (Russian objective: Maintain frontline positions and secure rear areas against Ukrainian strikes)
Assaults by Russian forces north of Robotyne in the western Zaporizhia Oblast have persisted. Russian milbloggers initially speculated about an increase in Russian military activity in preparation for a potential offensive operation; however, independent verification of such redeployment remains unconfirmed.
The Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs expressed indignation in response to comments made by IAEA Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi regarding the presence and authority of IAEA representatives at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant. The MFA emphasized that only the Russian government holds the power to sanction such visits, in light of their ongoing illegal occupation of the plant since March 2022.
Positional engagements persisted in the Dnipro region within the Kherson Oblast, with no confirmed changes to the frontline. Elements of the Russian 205th Motorized Rifle Brigade reported ongoing operations in this area, alongside similar advances monitored by Ukrainian observers that suggest a distribution of military resources across multiple sectors of the frontline.
Russian Air, Missile, and Drone Campaign (Russian Objective: Target Ukrainian military and civilian infrastructure in the rear and on the frontline)
Overnight from November 14-15, Russian forces launched a series of missile and drone strikes targeting Ukraine. The Ukrainian Air Force reported the use of two Kh-59/69 cruise missiles and 29 Shahed drones directed at Odesa Oblast. Successful interceptions included one missile and 25 drones, mainly over Odesa, with additional drones reported downed in Mykolaiv, Kirovohrad, and Ternopil regions. Ukrainian officials noted extensive damage from Russian strikes, impacting infrastructure vital for civilian needs such as heating, residential buildings, and municipal facilities in Odesa City.
Russian Mobilization and Force Generation Efforts (Russian objective: Expand combat power without conducting general mobilization)
Russian Technological Adaptations (Russian objective: Introduce technological innovations to optimize systems for use in Ukraine)
Nothing significant to report.
Activities in Russian-occupied areas (Russian objective: Consolidate administrative control of annexed areas; forcibly integrate Ukrainian citizens into Russian sociocultural, economic, military, and governance systems)
ISW is not publishing coverage of activities in Russian-occupied areas today.
Significant activity in Belarus (Russian efforts to increase its military presence in Belarus and further integrate Belarus into Russian-favorable frameworks and Wagner Group activity in Belarus)
Nothing significant to report.
Note: ISW does not receive any classified material from any source, uses only publicly available information, and draws extensively on Russian, Ukrainian, and Western reporting and social media, as well as commercially available satellite imagery and other geospatial data. References to all sources used are provided in the endnotes of each update.
[1] dot de/breg-de/aktuelles/pressemitteilungen/bundeskanzler-scholz-telefoniert-mit-dem-russischen-praesidenten-putin-2320942; dot ru/events/president/news/75588;
[2]
[3]
[4]
[5]
[6]
[8]
[9]
[10]
[11]
[12]
[13]
[14]
[15]
[16]
[17] dot media/880735-norvegia-profinansue-virobnictvo-ukrainskogo-ozbroenna-ta-tehniki-umerov/; dot com.ua/2024/11/15/norvegiya-profinansuye-vyrobnycztvo-ukrayinskogo-ozbroyennya-ta-tehniky/; dot in.ua/uk/news/norvegiya-profinansuje-vyrobnytstvo-ukrayinskoyi-zbroyi-dlya-zsu/; dot com.ua/2024/11/15/norvegiya-pryyednuyetsya-do-posylenoyi-pidtrymky-oboronnoyi-galuzi-ukrayiny/; dot com.ua/2024/11/15/rustem-umyerov-zustrivsya-z-premyerom-norvegiyi-obgovoryly-potreby-zsu-ta-zmicznennya-ppo-ukrayiny/; dot com.ua/2024/11/14/rustem-umyerov-obgovoryv-posylennya-ukrayinskoyi-ppo-z-ministrom-oborony-norvegiyi/
[18]
[19]
[20] ;
[21]
[22] ;
[23] ; ;
[24]
[25] ;
[26] dot ru/20241115/46-dronov-podavleny-nad-krymskim-rayonom-za-noch-1141872218.html; dot org/a/kupyansk-attack-odesa-kiper-strike-trukhanov/33202942.html; ;
[27]
[28]
[29] ;
[30] dot ua/news/2024/11/15/7484636/ ; dot com.ua/2024/11/15/zagrozy-vtorgnennya-na-chernigivshhynu-nemaye-proryvu-kordonu-ne-bulo-czpd/;
[31] dot ua/news/2024/11/15/7484636/
[32] ; dot com.ua/2024/11/14/vovchansk-staryczya-ta-lypczi-pid-udarom-voroga-na-pivnochi-harkivshhyny-okupanty-vkotre-zaznaly-vtrat/
[33] dot com.ua/2024/11/14/duzhe-shhilno-staly-syly-oborony-nadijno-kontrolyuyut-tankonebezpechni-napryamky-na-pivnochi-harkivshhyny/
[34] .com dot ua/2024/11/14/vovchansk-staryczya-ta-lypczi-pid-udarom-voroga-na-pivnochi-harkivshhyny-okupanty-vkotre-zaznaly-vtrat/
[35] dot com.ua/2024/11/14/vovchansk-staryczya-ta-lypczi-pid-udarom-voroga-na-pivnochi-harkivshhyny-okupanty-vkrechte-zaznaly-vtrat/
[36] ; ;
[37] ;
[38] ;
[39]
[40] ; ;
[41] ;
[42] ; ; ; ; ;
[43] ; ;
[44]
[45] ;
[46] dot com.ua/2024/11/15/ataky-pid-kovdramy-zamist-zombi-shturmiv-vorog-zminyuye-taktyku-u-chasovomu-yaru/
[47]
[48] ;
[49] ; ;
[50] dot com.ua/2024/11/15/miski-boyi-vazhka-i-brudna-robota-shhodnya-v-toreczku-minusuyut-do-sotni-okupantiv/
[51]
[52] ;
[53]
[54] ; ;
[55] ; ; ;
[56]
[57]
[58] ; ; ; ; ;
[59] ; ;
[60] ;
[61] ; ; ;
[62]
[63]
[64]
[65]
[66] ; ;
[67]
[68] ; ; ;
[69]
[70] ; ;
[71]
[72]
[73]
[74]
[75] dot ru/ru/foreign_policy/news/1981661/
[76] ;
[77]
[78]
[79]
[80] dot com.ua/2024/11/15/u-vms-zsu-rozpovily-yak-rosiyany-styaguyut-resursy-dlya-svogo-zahystu-v-okupovanomu-krymu/
[81]
[82]
[83]
[84] dot media/880307-obstril-odesi-nastupnogo-tizna-ukraincam-predstavlat-vnutrisnij-plan-stijkosti-996-den-vijni-onlajn/?anchor=live_1731650648&utm_source=copylink&utm_medium=ps;
[85] dot com.ua/2024/11/15/vnochi-rf-atakuvala-odesu-same-udarnymy-dronamy-a-ne-imitaczijnymy-bpla-yurij-ignat/
[86] ; dot media/880307-obstril-odesi-nastupnogo-tizna-ukraincam-predstavlat-vnutrisnij-plan-stijkosti-996-den-vijni-onlajn/
[87] dot kremlin.ru/events/administration/75579;
[88]
[89]
[90]
[91]
[92]
How can I analyze a complex piece of content effectively?
I’m sorry, but it seems like you’ve pasted an article or report that includes extensive information and links. How can I assist you with this content? Are you looking for a summary, analysis, or specific information?
