While the Russian-American negotiations on security guarantees begin in Geneva, the Kremlin, by intervening in Kazakhstan, has already scored points. Ukraine risks paying the price, says Ukrainian geopolitical analyst in Oukraïnska Pravda.
A few days were enough to change the political situation in Kazakhstan, traditionally stable. The arrival in the country of peacekeepers from the Russian Federation and its allies is a game-changer, both in Kazakhstan itself and in the region.
Power, in effect, has lost control of the country, the forces and the army and has not been able to restore order and provide security. Therefore, the country’s president, Kassim-Jomart Tokaev, appealed to the CSTO [Organisation du traité de sécurité collective], pro-Russian equivalent of NATO, to help it triumph over “Terrorist danger”.
Moscow’s “hybrid scenario” in Kazakhstan
The rapid intervention of the Russian army behind the screen of the CSTO peacekeeping forces raises several questions. Why have the protests taken place precisely now? Who led them, and what is the role of the Russian Federation in the current conflict? And what consequences will the events in Kazakhstan have for Ukraine?
It is currently difficult to confirm that Russia was involved in the outbreak of the protests, there is no evidence of such involvement. On the other hand, it can be said with certainty that Russia is trying to make the most of the sensitive situation in Kazakhstan for its own ends, by implementing a “Hybrid scenario” takeover of the country.
First, by proposing the intervention of a contingent of the CSTO to “Restore constitutional order”, Russia demonstrates the weakness and incapacity of Kazakhstan as a state, as well as its own indisputable authority and monopoly in the post-Soviet space.
The main message that Moscow sends to the world is
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Yuri Poïta
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