If you rout, the Ukrainian army will aim and the last chance to remain
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More than a month has passed since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. “On March 22, Russian troops may have lost more than 10% of their strength,” a senior U.S. Department of Defense official reported.
In addition, there are reports that “when looking at the war situation, there is a counterattack by the Ukrainian army, the occupation of Mariupol by the Russian army is imminent, the focus of the Russian army’s attack is shifting to the eastern and southern parts, and it is being reorganized for the Kyiv attack.” be.
The battle between the Russian army and the Ukrainian army is a step-by-step process.
Will the Russian army make a full-scale attack on Kyiv once more once the reorganization is complete, or will the focus of the operation really change to the eastern and southern parts?
Also, will the Ukrainian army, which receives military support from NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization), go on a reversal offensive at present, or will it strengthen its counteroffensive?
Or will the war situation continue as it is without a decisive victory for both armies? It is a very difficult situation to predict these.
However, I would like to predict the future prospects of the battle between the two armies, that is, whether the flow will change, what the tide (Mt. Tennozan) will be at that time, what the ending will be, and how long the battle will continue.
In order to predict the war situation, I would like to read the loss of the Russian Soviet Army and describe what can be done in the future, the future of the war and the possibility of progress in negotiations.
1. 1.Real input force of the Russian army
According to the military balance, the Russian ground forces conducting ground operations are 270,000 in the army and 45,000 in the paratroopers, for a total of 315,000.
This number is just a fixed number set in the organization, and the actual number of troops who are actually satisfied will be 90% or less of this number.
Note:I use the military balance number because when I was an information analyst, I evaluated it as the closest to reliable data.
In the past, the sufficiency rate of the former Soviet Army ground forces division (units of 10,000 to tens of thousands) was approximately 90, 75, 50, 25% from the highest.
After the collapse of the Soviet Union, it was reorganized into a realistic unit that might increase its sufficiency rate and act, and became a division, brigade A, and brigade B (reserve unit only for core soldiers). As a result, units with low sufficiency rates were dismantled.
In the case of Japanese SDF personnel, the capacity is 247,000, but the actual number of SDF personnel is 227,000, and the sufficiency rate is regarding 92%.
Due to the fact that the Russian army has been reorganized to suit the actual situation and Russia’s financial problems, the sufficiency rate can be considered to be 80 to 90%, which is the same as or lower than that of Japan.
If it is 90% of 315,000 people, it is 280,000 people.
The number of troops put into Ukraine this time is estimated to be regarding 180,000. That is, regarding 65% of the total Russian army. The number of weapons introduced can be evaluated as regarding 65% of the total army.