2023-06-17 03:01:00
Russia launched missiles against Kiev on Friday, twelve of which were shot down, according to Ukrainian forces in an attack that coincides with the visit of a delegation of African leaders seeking a way out of the conflict. Six of those missiles would be Kinzhal hypersonic strategic missiles. But no independent source could certify that such cutting-edge weapons have actually been intercepted, in addition to six Kalibr missiles and two reconnaissance drones. The head of kyiv’s military administration, Sergei Popko, said they were all intercepted in the capital area.
According to Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba, these bombings are a message from Moscow to African mediators for their meeting with the Ukrainian president. Volodymyr Zelensky. “Russian missiles are a message to Africa: Russia wants more war, not peace,” he tweeted.
The delegation of African leaders, including South African President Cyril Ramaphosa, is seeking mediation in the conflict and was in kyiv on Friday to leave for Russia on Saturday to meet Vladimir Putin. They visited Bucha, on the outskirts of kyiv, the scene of a massacre of civilians attributed to the Russian army. South Africa, criticized for its position close to Moscow, refuses to condemn the Russian invasion, saying it wants to remain neutral and urge dialogue.
Putin is trying to appeal to African leaders, arguing that Russia is fighting Western imperialism and accusing Ukraine’s allies of harming Africa as sanctions prevent Moscow from exporting grain and fertilizer that the continent needs.
Russia admits a certain setback
The Russian army acknowledged this Friday that intense fighting is taking place in southern Ukraine for control of the towns of Rivnopil and Urojaine, admitting for the first time in a long time, a setback on the ground. The Russian authorities, starting with Vladimir Putin, have reiterated since the start of the relative Ukrainian counter-offensive at the beginning of June, that this operation is a failure and has been repelled.
Ukraine claimed the liberation of a handful of towns and about 100 km² on the southern front. “The most active fighting takes place in the towns of Rivnopil and Urojaine,” the Russian military said.. These towns are next to others that Ukraine claimed to have recaptured last week, in the Vremivka area. Russia claimed that “five attacks by the Ukrainian armed forces were repelled.” The Vremivka area is ten kilometers north of the main Russian fortified lines, made up of trenches and anti-tank traps.
The fact that there are battles for control of these towns implies that the Russian lines retreated a few kilometers to the south and east, on the border of the Zaporizhia and Donetsk regions, which are partially occupied by Russia. The Ukrainian army reported progress on Thursday, despite “powerful resistance” from Russian troops.
Zelenski no negocia
Ukrainian President Volodimir Zelensky on Friday excluded any negotiations with Russia after meeting with African leaders seeking to mediate in the conflict. “I have clearly said several times in our meeting today that authorizing any kind of negotiation with Russia, when the occupier is on our land, would amount to freezing the war, freezing pain and suffering,” Zelensky said. after meeting with the entourage.
From across the war front, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced that Russia has already transferred nuclear warheads to Belarus. “The first nuclear warheads were transferred to Belarusian territory. They are only the first, but before the end of the summer we will complete the process,” Putin told an economic forum in St. Petersburg.
The Russian president recalled that the “deployment of tactical nuclear weapons” in Belarus was the result of an agreement announced in March with Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko., who lent the territory of his country to Russia to attack Ukraine. “Tactical” nuclear weapons can cause immense damage, but their radius of destruction is more limited than that of “strategic” nuclear weapons.
The information war
Vladimir Putin also said that Ukraine is suffering massive losses in the first phase of its counteroffensive, on a day in which Kiev again reported that its troops continue to advance near the city of Bakhmut, one of the three front areas where attack.
During his speech at the International Economic Forum in St. Petersburg, Putin declared that the Ukrainian forces have reached the first line of Russian defense in some sectors, without achieving “any results” and at the price of putting their strategic reserves at risk. “Regarding the vehicles and war equipment, we see that they are losing more and more. There are 186 tanks lost and 418 armored vehicles,” said Putin, who placed the ratio of casualties between both sides at 10 to 1 in favor of Russia.
The x-ray of the situation offered by Putin contrasts radically with that of the kyiv spokesmen. Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Maliar said that Russia was losing 5 to 8 times more men than Ukraine, depending on the front area.
Ukrainian commander Oleksandr Sirski said that his “armed forces continue to advance and liberate Ukrainian land” and that the Russian army continues to “transfer military units to Bakhmut” to counter Ukrainian offensive actions. This troop buildup, he explained, gives Russia a numerical superiority, but Ukraine has an advantage in “quality, precision and motivation.” All of this would be just the beginning, as kyiv does not appear to have fully launched its offensive, according to analysts.
Where is the war going?
Some military scholars of geopolitics are beginning to wonder if Western economic and military support will begin to wane, in the face of a war that increasingly shows signs of becoming a long-term conflict. This prolonged war of attrition clearly benefits Russia and it is increasingly evident that neither side could win it clearly and definitively.
Turkish military sources let it be known that in these Ukrainian tests prior to a possible massive counterattack, kyiv would have lost 12,000 soldiers and hundreds of armored vehicles, a very high cost for so few days and tiny advances.. According to military manuals, any strong offensive action requires a superiority of means of 3 to 1, something difficult for Ukraine, even more so after the blowing up of the Kajovka dam. The largest Ukrainian forces are in the south and now it is very difficult for them to cross the Dnieper river which is one kilometer wide: they would be easy prey for Russian artillery and aircraft.
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