A senior US Treasury Department official said on Friday that Russia’s economy was “cornered” by Western sanctions, saying the ruble’s current strong rebound meant little.
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“Russia is cornered and on its way to becoming a closed economy, and Russia is one of the least equipped countries in the world to function as a closed economy” because it is too dependent on its raw material exports, explained this senior official, on condition of anonymity.
He said that Russia was suffering “severe” consequences from the sanctions decided by the West following the invasion of Ukraine: “high inflation which will only rise further, and a deep recession which will only get worse. ‘aggravate”.
During a telephone exchange with journalists, he estimated that the Russian economy might contract by 10% this year.
The senior official also wanted to put into perspective the recent sharp rebound of the rouble, which, despite heavy financial sanctions once morest Russia, has more or less regained its level before the start of the invasion, at 86 rubles for the dollar, certainly in a volatile and reduced market.
The Treasury source argued that the current high inflation in Russia meant that the Russian currency was “weakening”.
He also recalled that Russia had put in place severe restrictions to protect its currency, which according to him puts the displayed exchange rate into perspective.
The senior American official also assured that he saw the emergence in Russia of a black market in the ruble, which is not, however, an organized black market at this stage.
He predicted that these unofficial currency exchanges would increase and gain visibility, allowing the calculation of an exchange rate different from that given in the official market.
