Russia is apparently expanding its defense systems in Crimea and digging trenches. This should show satellite images.
Russia apparently fears a Ukrainian attack on Crimea and has massively expanded its defenses. Satellite images from the Maxar company show how many trenches have apparently been dug along the coast within two weeks. Ukraine has repeatedly emphasized that Crimea is its territory.
According to a report by the Washington Post, the new defense systems, including those on the Medvedivka headland, are said to extend over several kilometers. The trenches were dug in a zigzag pattern to give soldiers a larger firing range. In addition, anti-tank obstacles were set up.
“The Russian military seems to understand that Crimea will have to be defended in the near future,” Ian Matveev, a Russian military analyst, told the newspaper.
The fortifications appear once morest the background of a repeatedly heralded Ukrainian spring offensive. However, it is unclear what plans Kiev is actually pursuing. The recapture of Crimea has already been stated as a goal, but it is questionable whether sufficient resources are available for this. However, the Russian work at least suggests that Moscow is expecting an attack. According to the “Washington Post”, not only heavy equipment is used to build the plants, but also many workers who were previously recruited on online job boards. They were offered a salary of $90 a day.
Crimea is linked to Ukraine by a narrow land link that is partially swampy and might make it difficult for troops to advance. Some of the Russian installations in Crimea also appear to have been built near canals and rivers to provide another obstacle to approaching troops.
Ukrainian attack by sea possible?
The Crimean peninsula has a special meaning for Moscow: On the one hand, historically: Russia fought here once morest European allies in 1850. On the other hand, also strategically: following all, the port of the Black Sea Fleet is located here. Politically, losing Crimea would be a bitter defeat for President Putin: it was he who annexed the peninsula in 2014.
Russia even seems to be expecting an attack from the sea, which the installations on the coast suggest. It seems questionable whether Kiev will actually use its rather weak navy or send soldiers and tanks. Michael Kofman, a military analyst at the Center for Naval Analysis in Virginia, told the Washington Post that Ukraine is unlikely to capture Crimea in the “classic sense”. Rather, Kiev might pursue a strategy of depletion by making Russian access more difficult with ongoing attacks. That might then lead to negotiations. In recent months there have been repeated attacks in Crimea by Ukraine and groups friendly to it. Among other things, the Crimean Bridge was partially destroyed and considerable damage was done to a military airport.
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Ben Hodges, once general of US troops in Europe, still sees opportunities for Ukraine as far as Crimea is concerned. Expelling all Russian troops from Ukraine is not easy – even if he praises Ukrainian creativity. “Ukraine will never be safe or able to rebuild its economy as long as Russia occupies Crimea because of its blocking of access to the Sea of Azov and because of the Black Sea Fleet’s ability to dominate Ukraine’s Black Sea coast and ports,” Hodges wrote on twitter. His suggestion: “Liberate Crimea, the crucial terrain, and watch as Russian defenses collapse elsewhere.”
