The biggest unknown factor in the war, he said, is Europe. Unless Ukraine’s neighbors find a way to further increase defense production to help Kyiv, they too will eventually find themselves caught in Russia’s crossfire.
“The Russians will occupy the Baltic countries within seven days.
NATO’s response time is ten days,” he said.
He also emphasized that Ukraine’s courage and self-sacrifice have given Europe many years of advantages in preventing the immediate threat of Russian attack.
The question is whether Europe will repay the favor by keeping Ukraine in the game.
“We will continue to fight.
We have no other choice. We want to live. But the outcome of the war […] depends not only on us,” concluded Shkibitsky.
He also said that the war in Ukraine will most likely end not on the battlefield, but at the negotiating table. However, it is unlikely that this will become possible in the near future. According to his forecast, negotiations between Ukraine and Russia are possible no earlier than the second half of 2025.
Shkibitsky admitted that the war will not end even if Ukraine manages to push back Russian troops to the 1991 borders.
“Wars like this can only be ended by treaties,” he says.
“At the moment, both sides are fighting for the “best position” ahead of possible negotiations.
However, meaningful negotiations can begin no earlier than the second half of 2025,” says a representative of the Main Intelligence Directorate.
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2024-05-05 13:37:58
