Sanctions on Russian oil and petroleum products (crude on December 5, 2022, then refined on February 5, 2023) may not win the war, but they are seriously contributing to weakening financial support for the Russian effort. This is at least the hope of the Western chancelleries, which for the time being say they are satisfied with the goal achieved by the first of these plans. « The embargo and cap on the price of Russian crude [par l’Union européenne (UE)] worked, judges a European diplomat. It didn’t create a panic in the markets, because it didn’t remove the 2 million to 3 million Russian barrels per day from the market. But Russia’s income has fallen. It was our goal. »
Oil remains Russia’s main source of revenue, ahead of gas. Moscow was the world’s second largest exporter of crude oil, and the first if we add refined products, before the invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022. However, its sales, due to the first sanctions, would have reached in value , at 12.6 billion dollars (11.7 billion euros) in December 2022, their lowest level since 2021, according to the International Energy Agency.
According to the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, present in kyiv on Thursday February 2, this first round of sanctions once morest crude oil would already cost “regarding 160 million euros per day” to Russia. On January 18, the Russian Finance Minister also confirmed that the revenues of the sovereign fund, made up of oil revenues, had fallen by 38.1 billion dollars in the space of a month, to reach 148.4 billion. at 1is January. This fund is crucial for Russia’s finances. It was originally intended for the payment of the pension system, and it made it possible to absorb the public deficit, largely linked to the conflict, of December 2022.
“Find new buyers”
“In our view, the import ban on refined products should have the same type of impact as the one on crude oil », anticipe Lauri Myllyvirta, expert du Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air. A savoir “an initial drop in volumes, which then forces Russian exporters to lower their prices in order to find new buyers”. More dependent on Europe to sell this type of product than it was on oil, Russia even risks, according to this expert, being hit even harder on the wallet.
“We estimate the value of imports of Russian petroleum products in the EU at 70 million euros per day currently, which represents more than 10% of Russia’s total revenue, which is around 600 million euros per day”, he adds. In addition, and still according to this same think tank, unlike crude oil, petroleum products are almost exclusively exported from the ports of the Baltic and the Black Sea.
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