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- Author, Visual Journalism Team
- Role, BBC News
-
2 hours ago
Fighting has continued in Ukraine since Russia began its full-scale invasion in February 2022.
In recent months, Russian forces have made minor gains, while Ukrainian forces have initiated a counteroffensive across the Russian border in the northeast.
Below is a summary of recent significant events and the current situation in Ukraine.
Ukraine Deploys Units to Russia
Ukrainian forces launched a surprise cross-border offensive in early August, advancing approximately 30 kilometers into Russia’s Kursk region.
The Russian government has evacuated nearly 200,000 individuals from border areas, including Belovsky and Krasnaya Yaruga, and President Vladimir Putin has denounced the Ukrainian attack as a “major provocation.”
A week later, the top commander of the Ukrainian military claimed control over about 1,000 square kilometers of Russian territory, though analysts suggested the actual area was smaller.
The acting governor of Russia’s Kursk region, Alexei Smirnov, stated that 28 towns have been captured by Ukrainian forces, while Ukraine’s president later increased the number to 74.
This counteroffensive is viewed partly as an effort to compel Russia to redeploy units from eastern Ukraine, alleviating pressure on Ukrainian defenses there, and partly as a strategy to enhance Ukraine’s prospects for achieving a peace agreement.
Russian Incursion North of Kharkiv
In early May 2024, Russian forces crossed the international border north of Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second-largest city, capturing several villages and prompting thousands of civilians to flee.
The main Russian offensive has primarily focused on the eastern Donetsk region; however, this was one of the most significant ground offensives since the war began, straining Ukraine’s front-line defenses.
This Russian advance followed a four-month period when the United States did not provide weapons to Ukraine due to a stalemate in Congress.
The issue was finally resolved in late April when the United States approved a $61 billion aid package to supply missiles, artillery, and air defense systems to the Ukrainian military.
Ukrainian forces eventually held their ground, and although Kharkiv faced multiple cruise missile attacks launched by Russian aircraft, it remained out of reach of Russian artillery.
Russia Faces Challenges in the East
The incursion north of Kharkiv occurred at a distance from the primary front line in the east, where Russia has continued its offensive operations, gradually making progress since October 2023.
Eastern Ukraine has been a battleground since 2014 when Russian-backed fighters seized large areas of the eastern Donetsk and Luhansk regions.
Russia’s main advantage lies in its manpower, and it has demonstrated a willingness to commit troops into Ukrainian positions to gain ground incrementally.
According to Western officials, around 1,200 Russian soldiers were reported killed or wounded daily in May and June, marking the highest casualty rate since the war’s outset.
In response to the continuous strain on its frontline troops, Ukraine has reduced the minimum age for mandatory conscription from 27 to 25.
Russia achieved notable success in the town of Avdiivka, where Ukrainian forces withdrew in February after months of intense fighting.
This marked the most significant change along the 1,000-kilometer frontline since Russian forces captured the nearby town of Bakhmut in May 2023.
If the Ukrainian counteroffensive had been successful, Avdiivka could have become a gateway for Ukraine to reach the Russian-controlled city of Donetsk, but that opportunity has now passed.
Almost all of Avdiivka’s pre-war population of over 30,000 has evacuated, and the town itself has been nearly completely devastated.
Currently, Russian forces control what remains of Avdiivka, with their eyes set on the towns in the Ukrainian-held Pokrovsk region and, further north, Chasiv Yar, which is on elevated ground about 10 kilometers west of Bakhmut.
The areas surrounding Bakhmut continue to be a hotspot, experiencing some of the war’s fiercest battles.
Although Ukraine made some territorial gains in adjacent areas during the summer, Russian forces have since made advances around the town.
Two and a Half Years of Fighting
The Russian invasion began on February 24, 2022, with numerous missile strikes targeting cities across Ukraine just before dawn.
Russian ground forces advanced rapidly, controlling large portions of Ukraine within weeks and reaching the outskirts of the capital, Kyiv.
Russian forces bombarded Kharkiv, capturing territory to the east and south, extending as far as Kherson, while besieging the coastal city of Mariupol.
However, they encountered strong Ukrainian resistance almost everywhere and faced significant logistical challenges, along with low morale among Russian troops, who suffered from shortages of food, water, and ammunition.
Ukrainian forces have quickly utilized Western-supplied weapons, such as the Nlaw anti-tank system, which has been highly effective against Russian advances.
By October 2022, the situation shifted dramatically; after failing to capture Kyiv, Russia withdrew entirely from the north. The following month, Ukrainian forces reclaimed the southern city of Kherson.
Since that time, the fighting has mostly occurred in eastern Ukraine, with Russian forces making gradual territorial gains, while suffering losses of at least 50,000 soldiers, potentially many more.
About These Maps
To depict the areas under Russian control in Ukraine, we rely on daily assessments published by the Institute for the Study of War and the American Enterprise Institute’s Critical Threats Project. For key areas of advancement, we also utilize updates from the UK Ministry of Defense and the BBC’s Research Unit.
Note: The situation in Ukraine evolves rapidly, and there may be moments when changes are not reflected in the maps.
Current Situation in Ukraine – September 2023
Introduction to the Ukraine Conflict
The conflict in Ukraine has escalated significantly since Russia’s full-scale invasion in February 2022. The war has evolved dramatically, impacting millions of lives and the geopolitical landscape of Eastern Europe. Despite Russian advances, Ukrainian forces have demonstrated remarkable resilience, launching counteroffensives to reclaim territory.
Ukraine Launches Counteroffensive
In recent months, Ukrainian forces launched a surprising cross-border offensive, pushing approximately 30 kilometers into Russia’s Kursk region. This bold move aimed not only to reclaim lost territory but also to divert Russian military resources from the eastern front where Ukraine faces increased pressure.
- About 200,000 residents in the Kursk region were evacuated as a precaution from potential attacks.
- Ukrainian forces reportedly gained control of around 1,000 square kilometers of territory, as claimed by military leadership.
- Russian President Vladimir Putin strongly condemned the Ukrainian offensive, labeling it a significant provocation.
Russian Incursion North of Kharkiv
In early May 2024, Russian forces crossed the international border north of Kharkiv, capturing several villages and compelling thousands of civilians to flee. This offensive escalated tensions, especially as the US delayed military aid to Ukraine.
- Ukrainian defenses faced pressure as Russian troops focused on the eastern Donetsk region, leading to significant ground offensives.
- The US approved a $61 billion aid package in late April to support Ukraine’s military capabilities.
- Despite ongoing Russian attacks, Ukrainian forces managed to hold critical positions, preventing a complete takeover.
Difficulties for Russian Advances in the East
While Russia continues to push forward in Eastern Ukraine, their operations have encountered significant challenges. These challenges stem from various factors, including resource limitations and resistance from Ukrainian forces.
- The Russian offensive has been progressing slowly since October 2023, with casualties reported to be alarmingly high.
- Ukrainian forces are now lowering the age for compulsory conscription to replenish their ranks, responding to ongoing needs at the frontlines.
- Notably, Russian forces achieved a tactical victory in Avdiivka, which marked a significant shift in control on the front.
Chronology of the Conflict
| Date | Event |
|---|---|
| February 24, 2022 | Full-scale invasion begins with missile strikes across Ukraine. |
| April 2022 | Ukrainian forces mount strong resistance, halting Russian advance towards Kyiv. |
| October 2022 | Ukraine recaptures southern city of Kherson. |
| November 2023 | Russian incursions continue in the Donetsk region as fighting escalates. |
| May 2024 | Russian forces advance north of Kharkiv; new military strategies implemented. |
Impact on Civilians and Evacuations
The ongoing conflict has resulted in severe humanitarian consequences, leading to large-scale evacuations and displacements. In zones affected by fighting, civilian life has drastically changed.
- Approximately 200,000 residents in Russian-bordering areas have been relocated to safer zones.
- Civilians fleeing from conflict zones face arduous conditions, often making headway towards less populated areas.
- With the destruction of towns like Avdiivka, reconstruction and resettlement will pose significant challenges in the future.
Weapons and Aid Received by Ukraine
Western support continues to play a crucial role in bolstering Ukraine’s military efforts. The introduction of advanced weaponry has enhanced their capabilities against Russian forces.
- US military aid includes anti-tank systems like the Javelin and modern artillery systems to strengthen Ukraine’s defenses.
- New aid packages are crucial amidst the backdrop of escalated conflict and changing battlefield dynamics.
Social and Economic Repercussions
The repercussions of the war extend beyond the battlefield, affecting Ukraine’s economy and social fabric.
- Destruction of infrastructure has hindered economic recovery, leading to significant financial challenges.
- Displacement has resulted in a population decline in affected areas, complicating future recovery efforts.
Future Outlook and Considerations
The unfolding situation in Ukraine remains dynamic with potential for shifts in military strategy and international responses. Political dialogue will be essential in addressing the conflict and seeking resolutions.
- The international community closely monitors developments and may impose further sanctions based on actions taken by Russian forces.
- Ongoing military assistance is crucial for Ukraine to sustain its defense against further incursions.
Key Strategies and Lessons Learned
Throughout the conflict, several strategies have emerged that underline the resilience of Ukrainian forces and the challenges faced by the Russian military.
- Effective mobilization of volunteer forces and rapid deployment of Western-supplied weaponry have played pivotal roles in Ukraine’s defense strategy.
- Logistical challenges and troop morale have hindered Russian advancements despite their numerical advantages.
About the Maps
The geographical representation provided in this article is informed by continual assessments from reputable sources including the Institute for the Study of War, the UK Ministry of Defense, and the BBC Research Unit.
Note: The situation in Ukraine remains fluid, and real-time changes may occur that are not immediately reflected in the maps.
