Although the rupiah exchange rate against the US dollar is currently experiencing a strengthening trend, Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati emphasized that the government remains careful in setting the rupiah exchange rate assumption next year. According to her, global economic turmoil will still occur and affect domestic conditions.
In the Draft State Budget (APBN) 2025, the rupiah is pegged at Rp16,100 per US dollar. This figure is higher than the estimate of the Macroeconomic Framework and Fiscal Policy Principles (KEM-PPKF) 2025 which is in the range of Rp15,300-Rp16,000.
“We see that by setting it at the level of Rp16,100, it is an expression of caution from the government towards global uncertainty,” said Sri Mulyani in a working meeting (raker) with Commission XI at the Senayan Complex, Jakarta, Wednesday (28/8).
External factors, he said, greatly determine the movement of the rupiah. In the last three months the rupiah has been under pressure due to the strengthening of the US dollar. However, in the last two weeks the rupiah and other currencies have appreciated due to the weakening of Uncle Sam’s currency.
“Throughout August, the rupiah has appreciated by 5% to below Rp16,000, but the government is still being careful,” explained the state treasurer.
The government considers the world to still be full of uncertainty. By carefully preparing the 2024 State Budget, the government is trying to maintain a good posture of revenue, spending, and financing. The assumption of the average yield on 10-year government securities (SBN yield) is still set high at 7.1% in the 2025 State Budget.
“Regarding SBN, we set it conservatively at 7.1%. This is to maintain pressure from US bond yields and this illustrates our caution in creating a buffer so that the APBN does not easily soar during times of global uncertainty,” he concluded. (Z-11)
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