At the end of the year, the demand for used cars in Russia turned out to be more stable than for new ones. Against the backdrop of a shortage in the market, Russians have become more actively interested in three-year-old cars. As a result, even in the third quarter, sales were higher than in 2021. But by the end of the year, the situation began to change for the worse, and already in December, demand froze. At the same time, the supply in the same month, according to Avito Auto, increased by more than 32%. But with the prices the situation is ambiguous. What is it connected with? And what to expect this year? Vladislav Viktorov understood.
When popular car brands gradually began to leave Russia, the Russians went to the secondary market. Back in the spring there was a large selection of “fresh” cars no older than three years, and the prices remained below those offered by dealers. This spurred sales, so much so that in the third quarter they were higher than in 2021. True, only 2%. But the partial mobilization announced at the end of September changed the situation – demand began to fall sharply, while supply grew.
This was supposed to bring prices down, but in fact, in some cases, they even increased. As experts explained, due to the lack of liquid offers. Portal “Drom” calculated that the average price of “three-year” is 2.7 million rubles. Despite this, sales in the secondary market reached 5 million cars, while in the primary market – only 670 thousand.
The shift in demand towards used cars will continue this year, which, however, will not be easy for auto retail, says Otkritie Avto expert Alexander Potapov: “The stock of European brands in warehouses is almost exhausted. As part of parallel imports, not enough cars are imported. We expect demand, including deferred demand, to switch to the new automotive reality.
Dealer stocks will run out, and new cars will be supplied by parallel imports in insufficient volumes. The Russian market will consist of domestic cars. The popular used car segment will continue to grow, not only because of familiar foreign cars, but also because of more affordable options. At the same time, the Russian car fleet is aging, and the average age of cars in Russia is regarding 14 years.”
In many ways, the increase in supply in the secondary market, which began at the end of December, is associated with parallel imports. Cars that are brought into the country bypassing the copyright holders are put up for sale as used. This is due to the fact that most cars are imported with the help of individuals – it is easier for them to do this than for the dealers themselves.
But since February, new difficulties will also appear for private traders: they will once more have to install panic buttons with ERA-GLONASS on their cars. Its operator expects that next year 5,000 cars will be connected to the system every month. But this can also complicate the process of delivering cars, says Vladimir Popov, president of the Favorit Motors group of companies:
“Any additional stages, as a rule, increase the time frame. The fact that GLONASS is counting on 5,000 is what it expects for parallel imports. In fact, it is in the interests of the state to cancel the Euro-5 import standard. As for GLONASS, we don’t live in quite standard conditions now, and solutions should not be quite standard. The customs duty is very high, which also affects the final cost.”
Since last summer, almost all cars that came to Russia through parallel imports were not equipped with the GLONASS system. But from February, buyers will pay extra for the button, Kommersant FM’s interlocutors say. So there are no prerequisites for reducing car prices. Denis Migal, CEO of Fresh Auto, makes more cautious forecasts: “Only the lazy did not rush to import cars.
They, as a rule, lay down some fabulous margin, something around 20-30%, thinking that this is how it should be, this is how you need to earn money here.
In a couple of months, all non-professionals will leave the market, and it will once more become more stable. Still, there really is a demand, but there is also a shortage of cars. However, this does not mean that they can be sold for any money, since the incomes of the population have not grown in recent years, unfortunately.”
However, under the current conditions, the current customs duties and logistics costs lead to the fact that it is cheaper to bring cars to Russia for less than 2 million rubles. unprofitable, say the interlocutors of Kommersant FM. Therefore, they propose this year to forget regarding such a thing as cheap cars, even in the secondary market.
News at your pace – Telegram channel “Э FM”.