A new presidential poll shows that, with 14 days to go before the second round, the engineer Rodolfo Hernández would beat Gustavo Petro, by a difference of 3%. According to the survey, the former mayor of Bucaramanga has an intention to vote of 46.4%, while the candidate of the Historical Pact has the support of 43.3% of those surveyed.
The survey was conducted among 1,958 citizens between June 1 and 4, and has a margin of error of 2.5%.
How is the intention to vote by region?
The pollster detailed the results obtained throughout the national territory, by means of the analysis in five important regions for the elections, taking into account their population and their electoral history in the recent past of the country.
Bogota: The Colombian capital, as demonstrated in the first round, mostly supports Petro’s progressive idea, with 52.8% voting intention for the leader of the Colombian left; Rodolfo, for his part, has 37.7%.
Antioquia and the Coffee Region: The opposite is what happens in the northwestern part of the country, where Rodolfo Hernández far exceeds Petro, with 57.2% of the intention to vote, once morest 27.5% for Petro.
Eastern Central Region: The same scenario is the one that occurs in the departments of Boyacá, Santander and Norte de Santander, where, as expected, the winner would be Hernández, with 60.3% of citizen support. Petro would keep 31.4%.
Atlantic Coast: in the north of the country, majority support returns for the candidate of the Historical Pact, with 56.8%; Hernández has 34.1%.
South Western Region: In departments such as Putumayo and Nariño, Petro is once once more in the lead, with 59.1% of the intention to vote, once morest 33.2% of the population that supports Rodolfo Hernández.
It should be remembered that in the survey carried out by the National Consulting Center (CNC) for the CM& news program, the situation was similar, since, according to this survey, Rodolfo Hernández would be the next president of Colombia with 41% of the intention to vote, once morest the 39% that Petro would reach. However, the pollster itself decided to mark these results as a technical tie, taking into account that the margin of error of the query was 2.8%.
Said survey was carried out on 1,200 people, throughout the Colombian territory, by telephone, between May 30 and 31, two days following the first presidential round.
Thus, these results are consistent with those obtained in the survey that the CNC itself carried out for SEMANA in mid-May, in which two scenarios were placed, both with Gustavo Petro on the scene, although with different contenders: Federico Gutierrez or Rodolfo Hernandez.
In the first case, Petro would have comfortably won the Presidency, with 44.2% of the vote, while Fico would have kept 34.9% of it.
The second case would already be tighter, since, according to the CNC, there would be a tie between Petro and Hernández, both with 40.5% of the voting intention.
Finally, as the Colombian people themselves decided, the reality is, precisely, with the leader of the left and the engineer in the dispute for power in the country and with an almost generalized presumption on account of the polls: in the event that there is no tie, it is more likely that Hernández will beat Petro.
However, the truth will be known on June 19, when Colombians go out to vote in search of knowing who will be the successor of Iván Duque in the Presidency of Colombia.