risk of a pandemic –

«Certainly the H5N1 avian influenza virus is worrying and must be monitored. What is worrying” for example in the case reported in the USA, in Texas, “is that cattle were infected, therefore there was a jump in species compared to the original virus. The human case is that of a livestock worker. As has happened in other cases, therefore, there is still no trace of human-to-human transmission. Of course we need to monitor, we need to pay attention to this virus because it can somehow give us surprises.” This was highlighted to Adnkronos by virologist Massimo Clementi, who raises the alarm: «There has been very close control for some time, perhaps mindful of previous experiences – observes the expert, also commenting on the report of the European authorities ECDC and EFSA -. Above all, veterinary healthcare is truly carrying out a control activity worthy of praise, because everything that is there comes out. It is obviously an activity somewhat favored by the fact that livestock farms are better controlled than wild fauna, but in any case there is certainly very good control. Now it is certainly necessary to maintain vigilance and try to carefully develop safeguards to be put in place if it is necessary to limit the damage of human-to-human transmission. Because initially, even human-to-human transmission occurs in small communities, in small areas and should be stopped there. It is possible if there are the means to do so. It is clear that this is very important.”

What are the factors that might expose us to a greater risk of a pandemic? «There are several – analyzes the virologist who for years directed the Microbiology and Virology Laboratory of the San Raffaele hospital in Milan -. For example, this element of the passage from species to species”, which is being observed more and more frequently. «As is known, the species of origin of this virus is avian, or rather there are different avian species. However, small epidemic outbreaks are now being observed in different animals, always from livestock. This – notes the expert – presupposes a jump in species, an adaptation of the virus to these new growth conditions and also presupposes an ability to genetically evolve in the external proteins of the virus, in the genes of the external proteins of the virus which show remarkable adaptability ».

Therefore, concludes Clementi, «attention is needed for this virus which was already one of the suspects, I would say perhaps more suspicious than others as a possible agent of a future influenza virus pandemic. It would not be the first” flu pandemic “and possibly it will not be the last. There have been others and sometimes they were alarms that went somewhat amiss. Everyone will remember A/H1N1, the so-called ‘swine flu’ virus. That virus was due to a mix of various influenza viruses, it became human but still did not cause great concern because it was a very attenuated virus from the point of view of pathogenicity. In any case, a pandemic risk is possible.