2023-09-06 16:06:54
After a slight pause in mid-August, diesel and unleaded prices are rising once more. And this increase, already significant in July, might last, following the announcements of the members of OPEC +, Saudi Arabia and Russia in the lead.
A short respite for the portfolio of French motorists. After a drop in fuel prices during August, the prices have been on the rise since the start of the school year. The liter of diesel recovered nearly 3.5 cents between August 25 and September 1, to reach almost 1.86 euros per litre. Unleaded 95, for its part, has increased by more than 2 cents, rising to nearly 1.96 euros, and unleaded 98 is flirting with the symbolic 2 euros per liter (see the price development on the graph below).
Faced with this new rebound, voices are rising to demand the return of state aid at the pump. Xavier Bertrand, LR president of the Hauts-de-France region, called for new “discounts” d’“at least 15 to 20 euro cents (…) per litre”. A proposal swept away by the Minister of the Economy, Bruno Le Maire, who judges that such a measure would not be “not responsible”while the government is trying by all means to tighten the screw to reduce spending and complete the 2024 budget. Prices might therefore continue to climb for motorists in the coming weeks, and we explain why.
Because Saudi Arabia produces less
Saudi Arabia will continue to cut oil production by one million barrels per day (bpd) to “three more months”, from October to December. For the last three months of the year, production in the kingdom “will be around nine million bpd”, specifies the Saudi Ministry of Energy. This strategy, intended to “to support the stability and balance of the oil markets”, sera “reviewed monthly with a view to further reducing or increasing production”adds the ministry.
The world’s largest exporter of crude oil announced cuts in June following a meeting of OPEC+ (which brings together 23 oil-producing countries). They took effect in July. “The purpose of these production cuts is to keep oil prices at levels deemed sufficiently high”explains to franceinfo Francis Perrin, research director at iris and specialist in energy issues. “A few months ago, their production reached 11 million barrels per day”he recalls.
Because Moscow aligns with Riyadh
Russia is following the movement since it will maintain the reduction of its oil exports by 300,000 barrels per day until the end of 2023. The reason given is the same: the maintenance of “the stability and balance of the oil markets”, justified on Telegram the Russian Deputy Prime Minister, Alexander Novak. Moscow had already cut production volumes by 500,000 barrels per day in August.
Direct consequence of these announcements: the price of Brent, the European benchmark for crude oil, exceeded the symbolic bar of 90 dollars per barrel for the first time since November 2022.
OPEC+ (the 13 OPEC countries and 10 other countries) represents 40% of world crude production, recalls The echoes. Analysts at Rystad, an independent energy consultancy and analytics firm for the oil and gas industry, now expect a shortfall of 2.7 million barrels per day from demand in the final quarter of the year. year.
The drastic measures of the Saudis and the Russians have all the more impact on the market as no major producer appears in a position to fill all or part of this deficit. “The world market is around 100 million barrels/day”recalls on franceinfo Philippe Chalmin, professor of economic history at Paris-Dauphine University.
Because consumption is historically strong
The decisions of Riyadh and Moscow fall badly, while world consumption has never been so high. “In 2023, the world will consume more oil than it has ever consumed in all of history”says Francis Perrin.
“We’re going to break the record [de consommation] of 2019. This also has an impact on oil prices.”
Francis Perrin, specialist in energy issues
at franceinfo
The improvement in the economic situation also explains this rise in prices. “When the global economy is doing better, it means the world is consuming more oil and that often pushes oil prices up”, analyzes Francis Perrin. guest of Telematin on Wednesday, he estimated that “the only way for the state” to lower prices was “lower taxes”. “Which he’s not going to do. It’s unlikely to go down anytime soon”he concluded.
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