2023-11-15 20:06:00
Serious halt to the improvement in unemployment. 64,000 is the number of additional job seekers recorded last third quarter, or a total of 2.3 million people without any activity (as defined by the ILO). The unemployment rate soared to 7.4% of the active population in France (excluding Mayotte), according to figures published this Wednesday, November 15 by the National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies (Insee). A negative result which comes following a slight increase to 7.2% that began in the second quarter.
Simple temporary hitch or reversal of trend? The question is now asked. In government, we want to be reassuring. “We might expect such an increase given the slowdown in the global economy”, immediately reacted the Minister of Labor Olivier Dussopt in a message sent to the press, affirming to remain “mobilized” in the face of this increase which he hope “punctual”.
In August, when the unemployment rate first went off the road, the executive wanted to be reassuring that the course of full employment was being maintained. The subject is all the more sensitive as it represents one of the markers of the five-year term. President Macron has indeed promised to bring France back into the ranks of Europe’s good students, with an unemployment rate of 5% in 2027.
Economists divided on the situation of the labor market
Economists are currently divided between pessimists and optimists. For Mathieu Plane of the OFCE, “it’s more than just a one-off effect. We have arrived at a moment of turnaround in the sustainable labor market,” says the deputy director of the Analysis and Forecasting department. And added: “The euphoria of job creation, with nearly 300,000 jobs preserved during Covid thanks to whatever the cost, all that is over! Today we are in an adjustment scenario.”
OFCE projections also predict an unemployment rate of 7.9% at the end of 2024. At the OECD, on the other hand, economist Andrea Garnero admits “that today, with an uncertain international situation, it is “It’s hard to have a crystal ball.” In his eyes, “for the moment, it is a small turnaround that we are seeing in other countries (…), but France, until now, is doing well. The drop in unemployment in recent years has been remarkable, he insists, even if it is not among the best performers at European level. »
Youth unemployment is increasing
If the unemployment rate for the third quarter increases by 0.2 points over one year and returns to its level of the second quarter of 2022, it remains significantly below its peak in mid-2015 (-3.1 points), specifies the INSEE. Overall over the third quarter, the unemployment rate increased by 0.7 points for 15-24 year olds, to 17.6%, almost at its level a year earlier (-0.1 points).
For those aged 25-49, it increased by 0.2 points over the quarter and by 0.3 points over one year, to 6.7%. Finally, for those aged 50 or over, the unemployment rate is stable over the quarter and over one year, at 5.1%. The long-term unemployment rate (at least one year) was also stable over the quarter, at 1.8% of the active population.
More worrying, the “halo around unemployment”, i.e. people wishing to return to the job market, but who are not considered unemployed by the ILO (actually looking for a job and being available to take one), is increasing , him too. Certainly “slightly” over the quarter (+39,000), but it explodes over a year (+164,000) according to INSEE. Two million people are affected.
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